Mlada Boleslav 0-0 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 46%, yet in-form Baník Ostrava provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Baník Ostrava travel to Lokotrans Aréna to take on Mlada Boleslav. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 October 2024, 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Mlada Boleslav — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav at Lokotrans Aréna this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Baník Ostrava are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Mlada Boleslav, 3 for Baník Ostrava and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Mlada Boleslav in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 59% versus Baník Ostrava 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 64% | Baník Ostrava 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.73 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.196 / defence 1.037 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.048 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.223. Data: 39 Mlada Boleslav games / 39 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 46% | Draw 25% | Baník Ostrava 29%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Baník Ostrava 3.45. Mlada Boleslav hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Baník Ostrava (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 50% | Baník Ostrava 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 46% | Draw 25% | Baník Ostrava 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.73 / Baník Ostrava 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.196 / def 1.037 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.048 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Baník Ostrava xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava?
Mlada Boleslav 0 - 0 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 46% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Baník Ostrava?
Record (5 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 2W | Draws 0 | Baník Ostrava 3W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Baník Ostrava in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.20) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
46%
2.17
25%
3.97
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
3.06
1.33
Baník Ostrava xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
12%
8.20
5%
19.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.33 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 44 games, going 16W 10D 18L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Baník Ostrava sit at 1.50 PPG from 44 outings (19W 9D 16L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mlada Boleslav on 1.32 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Mlada Boleslav's home form reads 10W 3D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Baník Ostrava have taken 1.48 points per game from 21 outings (9W 4D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.55 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 16W 10D 18L in their last 44 games (1.32 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 19W 9D 16L in their last 44 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.57 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mlada Boleslav and Baník Ostrava runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mlada Boleslav
4
Draws
4
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, Baník Ostrava have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-0 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 62%, Baník Ostrava 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Mlada Boleslav and 57% for Baník Ostrava. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Baník Ostrava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 52% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 57% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mlada Boleslav's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 11, as Mlada Boleslav and Baník Ostrava drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.73 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.33 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Baník Ostrava landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.20 / defence 1.04 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.05 / defence 1.08, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 46% | Draw 25% | Baník Ostrava 29%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 64%, Baník Ostrava 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.32 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.