Sparta Praha 1-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to epet ARENA to face Sparta Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Sparta Praha (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Praha's home record at epet ARENA: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Sparta Praha against 1.00 for Teplice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Across 7 previous meetings, Sparta Praha are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2024, ended 4–1 with Sparta Praha winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sparta Praha and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Sparta Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 62% versus Teplice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 67% | Teplice 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.52 xG and Teplice 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.064 / defence 1.263 | Teplice attack 0.947 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.154. Data: 44 Sparta Praha games / 44 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 38% | Draw 30% | Teplice 32%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Teplice 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 80% | Teplice 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 38% | Draw 30% | Teplice 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Sparta Praha 1.52 / Teplice 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.064 / def 1.263 | Teplice attack 0.947 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Teplice xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Teplice kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Teplice kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Sparta Praha 1 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Teplice part of?
Sparta Praha vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 38% chance of winning, Teplice a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sparta Praha and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Teplice?
Record (7 meetings): Sparta Praha 5W | Draws 2 | Teplice 0W.
What form are Sparta Praha and Teplice in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Teplice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sparta Praha's attack rating (1.06) and Teplice's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.95x) against Sparta Praha's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
38%
2.60
30%
3.37
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.90
1.38
Teplice xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
10%
10.35
7%
14.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.38 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Sparta Praha have picked up 2.29 PPG on a 34W 8D 6L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice's form line: 15W 10D 23L from 48 games, 1.15 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.14 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sparta Praha have posted 2.30 PPG from 23 outings (16W 5D 2L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 7W 2D 14L from 23 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.12 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Teplice in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 34W 8D 6L in their last 48 games (2.29 PPG), while Teplice have gone 15W 10D 23L in their last 48 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Teplice away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.30 PPG; Teplice away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Teplice in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 0-3 on 9 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sparta Praha
4
Draws
0
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 6, Teplice have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Teplice 0-1 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Teplice?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 65%, Teplice 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sparta Praha and 61% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Teplice in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sparta Praha's games and 52% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Praha vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sparta Praha's matches and 61% of Teplice's.
Do Sparta Praha and Teplice tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Teplice in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Praha and Teplice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha and Teplice finished level at 1-1 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.52 xG and Teplice 1.38 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.06 / defence 1.26 against Teplice attack 0.95 / defence 0.95, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 38% | Draw 30% | Teplice 32%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 67%, Teplice 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Teplice's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.