Bohemians 1905 3-1 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Dukla Praha travel to Stadion Ďolíček to take on Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 12:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Dukla Praha stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Dukla Praha away from home: 0W 2D 5L from their last 7 away games — 0.29 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.29 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.29 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Bohemians 1905 are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Bohemians 1905, 1 for Dukla Praha and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 27 Jul 2024, ended Bohemians 1905 0–1 Dukla Praha — a Dukla Praha win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Bohemians 1905 in-play tendencies (last 14 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Dukla Praha in-play tendencies (last 14 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 57% versus Dukla Praha 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 64% | Dukla Praha 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.70 xG and Dukla Praha 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.840 / defence 1.176 | Dukla Praha attack 0.566 / defence 1.362. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.148. Dukla Praha's defence rating of 1.362 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians 1905's projected output up. Dukla Praha's attack rating of 0.566 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Data: built from Bohemians 1905's last 44 games and Dukla Praha's last 14.

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 57% | Draw 29% | Dukla Praha 14%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 1.75 | Draw 3.46 | Dukla Praha 7.11. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians 1905 (57%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bohemians 1905 70% (last 10 home games) | Dukla Praha 29% (last 7 away games).

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