Teplice 1-0 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sigma Olomouc make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's home record at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Teplice, 1.20 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Teplice register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Sigma Olomouc in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Teplice lead 3W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Teplice 55% and Sigma Olomouc 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 49% | Sigma Olomouc 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.66 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.069 / defence 1.370 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.086 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.221. Data: 45 Teplice games / 45 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 34% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 40%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Sigma Olomouc 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.48 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 80% | Sigma Olomouc 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 34% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 70% | xG Teplice 1.66 / Sigma Olomouc 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 1.069 / def 1.370 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.086 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Sigma Olomouc xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Teplice 1 - 0 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 34% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Teplice and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (7 meetings): Teplice 3W | Draws 2 | Sigma Olomouc 2W.
What form are Teplice and Sigma Olomouc in?
Teplice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Teplice's attack rating (1.07) and Sigma Olomouc's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.09x) against Teplice's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
34%
2.98
26%
3.80
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Teplice xG
Total xG
3.48
1.82
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.31
Clean Sheet
16%
6.15
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
5%
18.32
8%
13.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Teplice and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Teplice and 1.82 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Teplice's recent record stands at 13W 11D 23L from 47 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 20L across 47 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Teplice against 1.26 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Teplice have managed 7W 7D 9L from 23 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 6W 5D 12L across 23 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Teplice are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.36 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc in 68%.
Last 47 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 13W 11D 23L in their last 47 games (1.06 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 16W 11D 20L in their last 47 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Teplice's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.22 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
3
Draws
3
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 4, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Teplice 1-3 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Sigma Olomouc?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Teplice, 70% for Sigma Olomouc — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Teplice) and 52% (Sigma Olomouc).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Teplice's games and 70% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Teplice's recent games and 52% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Teplice defy the odds to beat Sigma Olomouc 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Sigma Olomouc 1-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.66 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.82 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sigma Olomouc landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 1.07 / defence 1.37 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.09 / defence 1.04, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 34% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 40%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Teplice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 49%, Sigma Olomouc 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.06 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.