Plzen 1-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Teplice travel to Doosan Aréna to take on Plzen in Czech Liga (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Thursday 5 December 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Plzen — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Plzen's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Teplice have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Teplice have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Plzen are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Plzen, 1 for Teplice and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Apr 2024, ended Plzen 3–0 Teplice — a Plzen win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Teplice in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 54% versus Teplice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 58% | Teplice 48%). Note also that Teplice surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Plzen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.75 xG and Teplice 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.287 / defence 0.764 | Teplice attack 0.923 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.168. Plzen carry an above-average attack rating of 1.287 — their 1.75 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Plzen have a tight defence (rating 0.764), which is pulling Teplice's projected output down. Data: built from Plzen's last 46 games and Teplice's last 46.
Result probabilities: Plzen 58% | Draw 26% | Teplice 16%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.73 | Draw 3.81 | Teplice 6.30. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (58%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Plzen 50% (last 10 home games) | Teplice 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 8 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Thursday 5 December 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 58% | Draw 26% | Teplice 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Plzen 1.75 / Teplice 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.287 / def 0.764 | Teplice attack 0.923 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Plzen (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Teplice xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plzen vs Teplice FAQs
What time does Plzen vs Teplice kick off?
Plzen vs Teplice kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Thursday 5 December 2024 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Teplice?
Plzen 1 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Plzen vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Teplice part of?
Plzen vs Teplice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 8) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 58% chance of winning, Teplice a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Plzen and Teplice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Plzen vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Plzen's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Plzen's last 46 games and Teplice's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
58%
1.73
26%
3.81
16%
6.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.57
0.82
Teplice xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
6.30
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
3%
36.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.0 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plzen vs Teplice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Plzen and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Plzen and 0.82 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Plzen have picked up 2.12 PPG on a 32W 10D 8L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Teplice's form line: 16W 11D 23L from 50 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Plzen have posted 2.38 PPG from their last 24 home games (18W 3D 3L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 7W 3D 14L from their last 24 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.12 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Teplice
Blended
Plzen (Home) vs Teplice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plzen
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Plzen vs Teplice Form FAQs
What form are Plzen and Teplice in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 32W 10D 8L in their last 50 games (2.12 PPG), while Teplice have gone 16W 11D 23L in their last 50 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Teplice away?
Plzen's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.38 PPG; Teplice away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Plzen or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Teplice in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Apr 2024, when Plzen won Plzen 3-0 Teplice.
Plzen's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Plzen
5
Draws
1
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Plzen vs Teplice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Teplice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Plzen have won 4, Teplice have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Teplice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Teplice 5-5 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Teplice?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 46%, Teplice 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Plzen) and 58% (Teplice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Teplice in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plzen vs Teplice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plzen and Teplice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Plzen's recent matches and 54% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Plzen and Teplice matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Plzen's matches and 58% of Teplice's.
Do Plzen and Teplice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Plzen's recent matches and 50% of Teplice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen and Teplice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 8, as Plzen and Teplice drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.75 xG and Teplice 0.82 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.29 / defence 0.76 against Teplice attack 0.92 / defence 0.90, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 58% | Draw 26% | Teplice 16%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 58%, Teplice 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Teplice's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.