Pardubice 2-2 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Pardubice take on Sigma Olomouc.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
CFIG Arena plays host to Pardubice versus Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Wednesday 4 December 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pardubice have posted 5W 1D 4L at CFIG Arena — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Pardubice are significantly better at CFIG Arena than their overall form suggests.
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Sigma Olomouc are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pardubice lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 2–0 with Pardubice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 44% versus Sigma Olomouc 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 42% | Sigma Olomouc 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.08 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.737 / defence 0.922 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.944 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.156. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Pardubice games / 46 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 34% | Draw 35% | Sigma Olomouc 30%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | Sigma Olomouc 3.33. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 30% | Sigma Olomouc 70%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Dec 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 34% | Draw 35% | Sigma Olomouc 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Pardubice 1.08 / Sigma Olomouc 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.737 / def 0.922 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.944 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Sigma Olomouc xG
45%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 16:30 on Wednesday 4 December 2024 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Pardubice 2 - 2 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 34% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (5 meetings): Pardubice 1W | Draws 2 | Sigma Olomouc 2W.
What form are Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc in?
Pardubice (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.74x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (0.94x) against Pardubice's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.94
35%
2.82
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.08
1.01
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.94
34%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
10%
9.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.01 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pardubice's recent record stands at 14W 9D 25L from 48 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 21L across 48 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Pardubice against 1.23 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 7W 5D 11L from 23 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 6W 5D 12L across 23 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pardubice are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.33 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc in 67%.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 14W 9D 25L in their last 48 games (1.06 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 16W 11D 21L in their last 48 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Pardubice's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.13 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 1-5 on 27 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
3
Draws
5
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 3-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 48%, Sigma Olomouc 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Pardubice) and 52% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Pardubice's games and 70% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pardubice vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Pardubice's recent games and 52% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 8, as Pardubice and Sigma Olomouc drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.08 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.01 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Pardubice beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.74 / defence 0.92 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.94 / defence 0.97, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 34% | Draw 35% | Sigma Olomouc 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 42%, Sigma Olomouc 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.06 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.