Mlada Boleslav 2-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mlada Boleslav face Bohemians 1905.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians 1905 make the trip to Lokotrans Aréna to face Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga (matchday 10). The match kicks off on Sunday 1 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Mlada Boleslav's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mlada Boleslav's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bohemians 1905 (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Bohemians 1905 have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.30 for Bohemians 1905. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Apr 2023, ended Mlada Boleslav 0–4 Bohemians 1905 — a Bohemians 1905 win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 58% versus Bohemians 1905 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 55% | Bohemians 1905 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.95 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.198 / defence 0.990 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.775 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.783 / away 1.209. Bohemians 1905's attack rating of 0.775 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Mlada Boleslav's last 38 games and Bohemians 1905's last 39.
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 61% | Draw 21% | Bohemians 1905 17%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.63 | Draw 4.66 | Bohemians 1905 5.78. The model has a clear lean to Mlada Boleslav (61%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Mlada Boleslav's last 10 home games and Bohemians 1905's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Mlada Boleslav 50% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 1905 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 10 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 61% | Draw 21% | Bohemians 1905 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.95 / Bohemians 1905 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.198 / def 0.990 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.775 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.783 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Bohemians 1905 xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 FAQs
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Mlada Boleslav 2 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 10) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 61% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.20) and Bohemians 1905's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.78x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Mlada Boleslav's last 38 games and Bohemians 1905's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
61%
1.63
21%
4.66
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.88
0.93
Bohemians 1905 xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
14%
7.04
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
2%
40.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 0.93 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 40 games, going 13W 13D 14L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.45 PPG from 40 outings (17W 7D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.45 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Mlada Boleslav's home form reads 6W 10D 4L across their last 20 home games, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.45 points per game from their last 20 away games (9W 2D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.42 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Mlada Boleslav (Home) vs Bohemians 1905 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 Form FAQs
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 13W 13D 14L in their last 40 games (1.30 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 17W 7D 16L in their last 40 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Bohemians 1905's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.40 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 14 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won Bohemians 1905 4-0 Mlada Boleslav on 16 Apr 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mlada Boleslav
5
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 October 2026: Bohemians 1905 1-0 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 60%, Bohemians 1905 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mlada Boleslav) and 60% (Bohemians 1905). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Bohemians 1905 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 60% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Bohemians 1905 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 80% of Bohemians 1905's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mlada Boleslav edge out Bohemians 1905 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Bohemians 1905 2-1 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.95 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.93 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.20 / defence 0.99 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.78 / defence 0.91, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 61% | Draw 21% | Bohemians 1905 17%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 55%, Bohemians 1905 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.30 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.