Bohemians 1905 3-2 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sigma Olomouc make the trip to Stadion Ďolíček to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 at Stadion Ďolíček this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Sigma Olomouc are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Bohemians 1905 0W, Sigma Olomouc 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 54% versus Sigma Olomouc 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 54% | Sigma Olomouc 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.20 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.858 / defence 1.030 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.144 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.698 / away 1.199. Data: 38 Bohemians 1905 games / 38 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 32% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 42%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Sigma Olomouc 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 40% | Sigma Olomouc 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 32% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.20 / Sigma Olomouc 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.858 / def 1.030 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.144 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.698 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Sigma Olomouc xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Bohemians 1905 3 - 2 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 32% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (2 meetings): Bohemians 1905 0W | Draws 1 | Sigma Olomouc 1W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.86x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.14x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
32%
3.14
26%
3.82
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.61
1.41
Sigma Olomouc xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
8%
12.90
13%
7.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.4 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.41 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 43 games, going 18W 8D 17L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.53 PPG from 43 outings (18W 12D 13L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.53 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 7W 6D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.48 points per game from 21 outings (8W 7D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.58 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 18W 8D 17L in their last 43 games (1.44 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 18W 12D 13L in their last 43 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Sigma Olomouc's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.29 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 62%, Sigma Olomouc 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Bohemians 1905) and 48% (Sigma Olomouc).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Bohemians 1905's games and 52% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 48% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bohemians 1905 defy the odds to beat Sigma Olomouc 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Sigma Olomouc 3-2 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.20 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.41 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.86 / defence 1.03 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.14 / defence 0.82, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 32% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 42%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 54%, Sigma Olomouc 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.44 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.