FK Jablonec 2-0 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 44%, yet in-form Slovácko provide a compelling counter-argument — this FK Jablonec vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FK Jablonec host Slovácko at Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga (matchday 10). Kick-off is Saturday 30 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
FK Jablonec — last 10 games: 0W 5D 5L, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 6D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Slovácko have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Slovácko's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Slovácko — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for FK Jablonec, 1 for Slovácko and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Apr 2023, ended FK Jablonec 1–1 Slovácko — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Slovácko in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 64% versus Slovácko 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 57% | Slovácko 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.49 xG and Slovácko 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.914 / defence 1.219 | Slovácko attack 0.808 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.761 / away 1.203. FK Jablonec's defence rating of 1.219 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Slovácko's projected output up. Data: built from FK Jablonec's last 39 games and Slovácko's last 39.
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 44% | Draw 26% | Slovácko 30%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.26 | Draw 3.90 | Slovácko 3.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Slovácko (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FK Jablonec 70% (last 10 home games) | Slovácko 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 10 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 44% | Draw 26% | Slovácko 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG FK Jablonec 1.49 / Slovácko 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.914 / def 1.219 | Slovácko attack 0.808 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.761 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Slovácko xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Slovácko FAQs
What time does FK Jablonec vs Slovácko kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Slovácko kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Slovácko?
FK Jablonec 2 - 0 Slovácko.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Slovácko part of?
FK Jablonec vs Slovácko is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 10) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 44% chance of winning, Slovácko a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FK Jablonec and Slovácko will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FK Jablonec vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (0.91) and Slovácko's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FK Jablonec's last 39 games and Slovácko's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.90
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.67
1.18
Slovácko xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
7%
14.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FK Jablonec vs Slovácko Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.18 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec come into this having played 44 games, going 10W 15D 19L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 1.52 PPG from 44 outings (18W 13D 13L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FK Jablonec's home form reads 6W 9D 6L across their last 21 home games, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.29 points per game from their last 21 away games (7W 6D 8L).
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.16 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slovácko in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
FK Jablonec (Home) vs Slovácko (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FK Jablonec
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ FK Jablonec vs Slovácko Form FAQs
What form are FK Jablonec and Slovácko in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 10W 15D 19L in their last 44 games (1.02 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 18W 13D 13L in their last 44 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Slovácko away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.29 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.29 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Slovácko in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FK Jablonec
3
Draws
1
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ FK Jablonec vs Slovácko H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slovácko?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FK Jablonec have won 6, Slovácko have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Slovácko last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: FK Jablonec 1-0 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Slovácko?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 67%, Slovácko 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FK Jablonec) and 52% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Slovácko in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Slovácko Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FK Jablonec and Slovácko matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 43% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FK Jablonec and Slovácko matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 52% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Slovácko matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 71% of Slovácko's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Slovácko.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Slovácko 2-0 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.49 xG and Slovácko 1.18 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Slovácko landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.91 / defence 1.22 against Slovácko attack 0.81 / defence 0.93, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 44% | Draw 26% | Slovácko 30%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 57%, Slovácko 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Slovácko's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with FK Jablonec winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.