Bohemians 1905 0-2 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plzen at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 21 as Bohemians 1905 welcome Plzen to Stadion Ďolíček. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 at Stadion Ďolíček this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Plzen — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Plzen have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Plzen are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Bohemians 1905, 2 for Plzen and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Plzen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Plzen trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 51% versus Plzen 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 49% | Plzen 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 0.89 xG and Plzen 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.706 / defence 0.841 | Plzen attack 1.297 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.248. Bohemians 1905's attack strength of 0.706 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.297 — the away xG of 1.36 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Bohemians 1905 games / 50 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 24% | Draw 30% | Plzen 47%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Plzen 2.13. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 40% | Plzen 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 24% | Draw 30% | Plzen 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Bohemians 1905 0.89 / Plzen 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.706 / def 0.841 | Plzen attack 1.297 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Plzen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Plzen xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Bohemians 1905 0 - 2 Plzen.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 24% chance of winning, Plzen a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen?
Record (5 meetings): Bohemians 1905 2W | Draws 1 | Plzen 2W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Plzen in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Plzen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.71x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
24%
4.25
30%
3.39
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.25
1.36
Plzen xG
4.25
24%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
6%
16.58
19%
5.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 14.4 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.36 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 55 games, going 21W 13D 21L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-D. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Plzen sit at 1.82 PPG from 55 outings (30W 10D 15L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 9W 9D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Plzen have taken 1.74 points per game from 27 outings (14W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.95 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen in 64%.
Last 55 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Plzen in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 21W 13D 21L in their last 55 games (1.38 PPG), while Plzen have gone 30W 10D 15L in their last 55 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.33 PPG; Plzen away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Plzen in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Plzen won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians 1905
1
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, Plzen have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Plzen 2-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 52%, Plzen 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Bohemians 1905) and 63% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Plzen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Bohemians 1905's games and 63% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 63% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Plzen tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Plzen in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Bohemians 1905 0-2 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 0.89 xG and Plzen 1.36 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.71 / defence 0.84 against Plzen attack 1.30 / defence 0.81, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 24% | Draw 30% | Plzen 47%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 49%, Plzen 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Plzen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.