Sparta Praha 2-1 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 70% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slovan Liberec make the trip to epet ARENA to face Sparta Praha in Czech Liga (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Sunday 18 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Sparta Praha's record over their last 10 games: 9W 0D 1L (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Sparta Praha's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across their last 10 home games (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Slovan Liberec (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Slovan Liberec away from home: 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form ledger tips toward Sparta Praha. A 0.90 PPG lead over Slovan Liberec (2.70 vs 1.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Sparta Praha edge it 3 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Sparta Praha 2–0 Slovan Liberec — a Sparta Praha win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 78%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Slovan Liberec — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 54% versus Slovan Liberec 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 57% | Slovan Liberec 56%). Note also that Slovan Liberec surrender HT leads in 39% of cases while Sparta Praha recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 78% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 2.15 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.348 / defence 0.721 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.803 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.259. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack rating of 1.348 — their 2.15 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Sparta Praha have a tight defence (rating 0.721), which is pulling Slovan Liberec's projected output down. Data: built from Sparta Praha's last 50 games and Slovan Liberec's last 50.
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 70% | Draw 20% | Slovan Liberec 11%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.44 | Draw 5.07 | Slovan Liberec 9.35. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (70%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 70% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sparta Praha's last 10 home games and Slovan Liberec's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sparta Praha 40% (last 10 home games) | Slovan Liberec 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 21 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 70% | Draw 20% | Slovan Liberec 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Sparta Praha 2.15 / Slovan Liberec 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.348 / def 0.721 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.803 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Slovan Liberec xG
46%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec FAQs
What time does Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 18 February 2024 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec?
Sparta Praha 2 - 1 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 21) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 70% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 11% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sparta Praha and Slovan Liberec will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sparta Praha's attack rating (1.35) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (0.80x) against Sparta Praha's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from Sparta Praha's last 50 games and Slovan Liberec's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 1-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
70%
1.44
20%
5.07
11%
9.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.88
0.73
Slovan Liberec xG
1.44
70%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
9.35
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
12%
8.61
Win to Nil
34%
2.98
1%
80.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 0.73 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sparta Praha come into this having played 54 games, going 40W 11D 3L for 2.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Slovan Liberec sit at 1.33 PPG from 54 outings (19W 15D 20L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.10 PPG clear of Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sparta Praha's home form reads 21W 4D 1L across their last 26 home games, a 2.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovan Liberec have taken 1.04 points per game from their last 26 away games (6W 9D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.31 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.50 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Sparta Praha (Home) vs Slovan Liberec (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sparta Praha
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec Form FAQs
What form are Sparta Praha and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 40W 11D 3L in their last 54 games (2.43 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 19W 15D 20L in their last 54 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.58 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Slovan Liberec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Slovan Liberec in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sparta Praha
1
Draws
2
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Slovan Liberec?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sparta Praha have won 7, Slovan Liberec have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Slovan Liberec 0-2 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Slovan Liberec?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 58%, Slovan Liberec 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Sparta Praha and 54% for Slovan Liberec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Slovan Liberec in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sparta Praha and Slovan Liberec matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Sparta Praha's games and 62% of Slovan Liberec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sparta Praha and Slovan Liberec matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Sparta Praha's matches and 54% of Slovan Liberec's.
Do Sparta Praha and Slovan Liberec matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Sparta Praha's recent matches and 77% of Slovan Liberec's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Slovan Liberec 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Slovan Liberec 2-1 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 2.15 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.73 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.35 / defence 0.72 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.80 / defence 1.04, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 70% | Draw 20% | Slovan Liberec 11%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 57%, Slovan Liberec 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.