Hradec Králové 2-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host Bohemians 1905 at Malšovická Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové at Malšovická Aréna this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hradec Králové 1.00 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Hradec Králové have won 0, Bohemians 1905 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 51% versus Bohemians 1905 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 49% | Bohemians 1905 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.68 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.965 / defence 1.086 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.946 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.184. Data: 49 Hradec Králové games / 49 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 48% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 28%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Bohemians 1905 3.57. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Hradec Králové 60% | Bohemians 1905 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 48% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Hradec Králové 1.68 / Bohemians 1905 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.965 / def 1.086 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.946 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Bohemians 1905 xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Hradec Králové 2 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 48% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905?
Record (2 meetings): Hradec Králové 0W | Draws 0 | Bohemians 1905 2W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.96x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
48%
2.08
24%
4.12
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.90
1.22
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
5%
19.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.22 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 18W 11D 24L from 53 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians 1905, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 21L across 53 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.23 PPG, Bohemians 1905 on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 10W 4D 12L from 26 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians 1905's away record stands at 11W 3D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.28 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 18W 11D 24L in their last 53 games (1.23 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 20W 12D 21L in their last 53 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Bohemians 1905's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.31 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2024, when Hradec Králové won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Bohemians 1905 0-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 54%, Bohemians 1905 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hradec Králové) and 54% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 54% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 20, as Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.68 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.22 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.96 / defence 1.09 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.95 / defence 1.13, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 48% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 28%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 49%, Bohemians 1905 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.23 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.