Wuhan Zall 1-4 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Zall at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wuhan Zall and Beijing Guoan meet at Dongxihu Sports Centre in Super League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 17 August 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Wuhan Zall's overall Super League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dongxihu Sports Centre, Wuhan Zall have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beijing Guoan have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Wuhan Zall have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, Beijing Guoan in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Wuhan Zall, 2 for Beijing Guoan and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Beijing Guoan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Wuhan Zall half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wuhan Zall 62% and Beijing Guoan 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Zall 53% | Beijing Guoan 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Zall 1.91 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Zall attack 1.068 / defence 1.218 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.008 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.243. Beijing Guoan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Wuhan Zall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Wuhan Zall games / 26 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 47% | Draw 22% | Beijing Guoan 31%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Zall 2.13 | Draw 4.55 | Beijing Guoan 3.23. Wuhan Zall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Zall at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wuhan Zall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Zall 100% | Beijing Guoan 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Dongxihu Sports Centre • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Aug 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 47% | Draw 22% | Beijing Guoan 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Wuhan Zall 1.91 / Beijing Guoan 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Zall attack 1.068 / def 1.218 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.008 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Zall (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Wuhan Zall xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Beijing Guoan xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:30 on Wednesday 17 August 2022 at Dongxihu Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan?
Wuhan Zall 1 - 4 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Dongxihu Sports Centre.
What competition is Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Zall a 47% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Zall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Wuhan Zall and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Beijing Guoan?
Record (2 meetings): Wuhan Zall 0W | Draws 0 | Beijing Guoan 2W.
What form are Wuhan Zall and Beijing Guoan in?
Wuhan Zall (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wuhan Zall's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Beijing Guoan's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (1.01x) against Wuhan Zall's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Zall Win
47%
2.14
22%
4.52
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Wuhan Zall xG
Total xG
3.44
1.53
Beijing Guoan xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
5%
21.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Wuhan Zall and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Wuhan Zall and 1.53 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, Wuhan Zall have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 8W 12D 14L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Wuhan Zall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan's form line: 13W 10D 11L from 34 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Wuhan Zall against 1.44 for Beijing Guoan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Wuhan Zall have posted 1.19 PPG from 16 outings (4W 7D 5L).
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 5W 3D 8L from 16 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Wuhan Zall are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.24 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Zall and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Wuhan Zall have gone 8W 12D 14L in their last 34 games (1.06 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 13W 10D 11L in their last 34 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Zall at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Wuhan Zall's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Zall at home: 1.19 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Beijing Guoan have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beijing Guoan won 1-4 on 17 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Zall have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Wuhan Zall
0
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Beijing Guoan?
From 4 meetings on record, Wuhan Zall have won 0, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Zall and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 13 November 2022, when Beijing Guoan 3-1 Wuhan Zall.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Zall and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 88% for Wuhan Zall, 50% for Beijing Guoan — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Wuhan Zall) and 56% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Zall home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Zall play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Wuhan Zall's games and 50% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Wuhan Zall's matches and 56% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Wuhan Zall and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Wuhan Zall have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beijing Guoan run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Wuhan Zall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Wuhan Zall 1-4 at Dongxihu Sports Centre, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Zall 1.91 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.53 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Wuhan Zall fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Beijing Guoan outscored their 1.53 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Zall attack 1.07 / defence 1.22 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.01 / defence 1.31, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Zall 47% | Draw 22% | Beijing Guoan 31%, with Wuhan Zall to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Beijing Guoan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Zall 53%, Beijing Guoan 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Zall 1.06 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.