Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-1 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Hangzhou Greentown travel to Puwan Stadium to take on Shijiazhuang Y. J.. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 24 August 2022, 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 4W 3D 3L at Puwan Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Shijiazhuang Y. J. are significantly better at Puwan Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Hangzhou Greentown — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 3D 2L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hangzhou Greentown are 1.30 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Shijiazhuang Y. J. trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Hangzhou Greentown trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 43% versus Hangzhou Greentown 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 29% | Hangzhou Greentown 14%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.99 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.729 / defence 0.947 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.993 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.309. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 12 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 29% | Draw 29% | Hangzhou Greentown 41%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40% | Hangzhou Greentown 62%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Aug 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 29% | Draw 29% | Hangzhou Greentown 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.99 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.729 / def 0.947 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.993 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Hangzhou Greentown xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 10:30 on Wednesday 24 August 2022 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1 - 1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 29% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
29%
3.40
29%
3.41
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.22
1.23
Hangzhou Greentown xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
9%
11.65
15%
6.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 13.3 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.23 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent record stands at 2W 4D 8L from 14 games, a 0.71 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 3L across 14 games — 1.64 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hangzhou Greentown by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shijiazhuang Y. J. heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed 1W 3D 3L from 7 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record stands at 2W 3D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.21 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 2W 4D 8L in their last 14 games (0.71 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 6W 5D 3L in their last 14 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Hangzhou Greentown's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 0.86 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2023, when Hangzhou Greentown won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
3
Draws
2
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 6 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2024, when Hangzhou Greentown 2-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 43%, Hangzhou Greentown 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 29% for Hangzhou Greentown.
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s games and 71% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 29% of Hangzhou Greentown's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Hangzhou Greentown finished level at 1-1 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.99 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.23 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.73 / defence 0.95 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.99 / defence 0.99, drawn from 27/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 29% | Draw 29% | Hangzhou Greentown 41%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 21% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 29%, Hangzhou Greentown 14%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.