SHANGHAI SIPG 2-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 13 as SHANGHAI SIPG welcome Shenzhen Ruby FC to Dalian Sports Center. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 16 August 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG at Dalian Sports Center this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (SHANGHAI SIPG) versus 1.30 (Shenzhen Ruby FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 2, Shenzhen Ruby FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2021, ended 3–1 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Shenzhen Ruby FC trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 42% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 42% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.31 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.805 / defence 0.861 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.060 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.244. Data: 25 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 25 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 41% | Draw 27% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 32%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: SHANGHAI SIPG 30% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 80%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Dalian Sports Center • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Aug 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 41% | Draw 27% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.31 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.805 / def 0.861 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.060 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 12:30 on Tuesday 16 August 2022 at Dalian Sports Center.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
SHANGHAI SIPG 2 - 0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Sports Center.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 41% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Record (2 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 2W | Draws 0 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 0W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG's attack at 0.81x the league average against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
41%
2.47
27%
3.67
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.44
1.14
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
9%
11.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.14 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SHANGHAI SIPG's recent record stands at 18W 8D 7L from 33 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shenzhen Ruby FC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 6D 13L across 33 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shenzhen Ruby FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SHANGHAI SIPG have managed 11W 2D 3L from 16 games — 2.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record stands at 7W 3D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 1.45 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shenzhen Ruby FC in 61%.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 18W 8D 7L in their last 33 games (1.88 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 14W 6D 13L in their last 33 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.19 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 1.50 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Shenzhen Ruby FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shenzhen Ruby FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SHANGHAI SIPG have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Shenzhen Ruby FC specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
SHANGHAI SIPG
0
Draws
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 6 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 6, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 July 2023, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-4 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 25%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 75% (Shenzhen Ruby FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 75% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of SHANGHAI SIPG's matches and 75% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-0 at Dalian Sports Center, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.31 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.14 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.81 / defence 0.86 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.19, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 41% | Draw 27% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 32%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 42%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.45. That form edge translated into the three points. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.