Tianjin Teda 1-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon encounter.

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Analysis

Qingdao Jonoon make the trip to Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Tianjin Teda in Super League (matchday 3). The match kicks off on Saturday 29 March 2025 at 07:30 UK time.

Form

Tianjin Teda (all games): 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Tianjin Teda's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Qingdao Jonoon's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form favours the hosts. Tianjin Teda's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Qingdao Jonoon's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Tianjin Teda, 1 for Qingdao Jonoon and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended Tianjin Teda 1–0 Qingdao Jonoon — a Tianjin Teda win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).

Qingdao Jonoon half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 62% versus Qingdao Jonoon 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 50% | Qingdao Jonoon 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.89 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 1.014 / defence 1.011 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.903 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.469. Data: built from Tianjin Teda's last 32 games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 50% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Jonoon 27%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.02 | Draw 4.19 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.76. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.89 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Tianjin Teda's last 10 home games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Tianjin Teda 50% (last 10 home games) | Qingdao Jonoon 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

The Poisson model's sample (Tianjin Teda 32 games, Qingdao Jonoon 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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