Meizhou Kejia 4-2 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Meizhou Kejia at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Changchun Yatai travel to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium to take on Meizhou Kejia. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 8 August 2023, 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Meizhou Kejia — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Meizhou Kejia's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Meizhou Kejia are significantly better at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Changchun Yatai stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Meizhou Kejia 1.00 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Meizhou Kejia, 1 for Changchun Yatai and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2023, ended 4–2 with Meizhou Kejia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Meizhou Kejia in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 56% versus Changchun Yatai 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 57% | Changchun Yatai 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.72 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.137 / defence 1.032 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.048 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.212. Data: 54 Meizhou Kejia games / 54 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 45% | Draw 27% | Changchun Yatai 27%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Changchun Yatai 3.70. Meizhou Kejia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Meizhou Kejia at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 70% | Changchun Yatai 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 45% | Draw 27% | Changchun Yatai 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.72 / Changchun Yatai 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.137 / def 1.032 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.048 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Changchun Yatai xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 12:35 on Tuesday 8 August 2023 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai?
Meizhou Kejia 4 - 2 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 45% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai?
Record (3 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 2W | Draws 0 | Changchun Yatai 1W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Meizhou Kejia's attack rating (1.14) and Changchun Yatai's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Meizhou Kejia's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
45%
2.21
27%
3.64
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
3.03
1.31
Changchun Yatai xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
12%
8.20
5%
20.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.9 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.31 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Meizhou Kejia come into this having played 54 games, going 19W 11D 24L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Changchun Yatai sit at 1.33 PPG from 54 outings (18W 18D 18L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Meizhou Kejia on 1.26 PPG, Changchun Yatai on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Meizhou Kejia's home form reads 13W 4D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Changchun Yatai have taken 1.35 points per game from 26 outings (9W 8D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 19W 11D 24L in their last 54 games (1.26 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 18W 18D 18L in their last 54 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.65 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Changchun Yatai have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Meizhou Kejia's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Meizhou Kejia
0
Draws
3
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai?
From 8 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 5, Changchun Yatai have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Changchun Yatai 1-0 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai?
Meizhou Kejia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Meizhou Kejia 65%, Changchun Yatai 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Meizhou Kejia and 65% for Changchun Yatai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Changchun Yatai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 58% of Changchun Yatai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 65% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Meizhou Kejia cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia beat Changchun Yatai 4-2 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.72 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.31 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.14 / defence 1.03 against Changchun Yatai attack 1.05 / defence 0.98, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 45% | Draw 27% | Changchun Yatai 27%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 57%, Changchun Yatai 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Meizhou Kejia 1.26 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Meizhou Kejia win broke the near-deadlock. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.