Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Shenzhen Ruby FC face SHANGHAI SIPG.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Shenzhen Ruby FC welcome SHANGHAI SIPG to Mission Hills Football Base Stadium in Super League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 13 November 2022 at 11:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, SHANGHAI SIPG have recorded 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. SHANGHAI SIPG's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Shenzhen Ruby FC's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
SHANGHAI SIPG have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Shenzhen Ruby FC. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2022, ended Shenzhen Ruby FC 0–2 SHANGHAI SIPG — a SHANGHAI SIPG win.
The H2H data backs the away side. SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 54% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 59% | SHANGHAI SIPG 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.84 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.627 / defence 1.182 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.124 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.345. Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating of 0.627 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 38 games and SHANGHAI SIPG's last 38.
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 17% | Draw 24% | SHANGHAI SIPG 59%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 5.98 | Draw 4.13 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1.69. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (59%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shenzhen Ruby FC 40% (last 10 home games) | SHANGHAI SIPG 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, matchday 25 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 November 2022 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 17% | Draw 24% | SHANGHAI SIPG 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.84 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.627 / def 1.182 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.124 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.79
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG FAQs
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 0 - 3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Super League fixture (matchday 25) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 17% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 59% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating (0.63) and SHANGHAI SIPG's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 38 games and SHANGHAI SIPG's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.5%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
17%
5.98
24%
4.13
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.63
1.79
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
5.98
17%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
17%
5.97
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
3%
35.71
25%
3.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 12.9 | 11.5 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.79 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Shenzhen Ruby FC have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 17W 8D 21L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form line: 27W 10D 9L from 46 games, 1.98 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, SHANGHAI SIPG are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 1.29 PPG from their last 21 home games (8W 3D 10L).
On the road, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 9W 7D 5L from their last 21 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.74 scored and 0.70 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC (Home) vs SHANGHAI SIPG (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG Form FAQs
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 17W 8D 21L in their last 46 games (1.28 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 27W 10D 9L in their last 46 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.29 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 16 July 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: SHANGHAI SIPG have taken the most recent 6 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Nov 2022, when SHANGHAI SIPG won Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0
Draws
6
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 July 2023: Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-4 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
SHANGHAI SIPG see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 43%, SHANGHAI SIPG 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 52% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 62% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent games and 52% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and SHANGHAI SIPG matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 57% of SHANGHAI SIPG's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.84 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.79 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 1.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.63 / defence 1.18 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.12 / defence 0.92, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 17% | Draw 24% | SHANGHAI SIPG 59%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 59%, SHANGHAI SIPG 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (46 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (46 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.28. That form edge translated into the three points. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.