Beijing Guoan 3-1 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beijing Guoan (54%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Beijing Guoan face Wuhan Zall.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium plays host to Beijing Guoan versus Wuhan Zall in Super League (matchday 25). Kick-off: Sunday 13 November 2022 at 11:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Beijing Guoan have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Beijing Guoan have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Wuhan Zall (all games): 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Wuhan Zall's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Beijing Guoan's favour (1.80 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Beijing Guoan have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Wuhan Zall managing 0 and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2022, ended Beijing Guoan 4–1 Wuhan Zall — a Beijing Guoan win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Beijing Guoan and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Beijing Guoan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Wuhan Zall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 59% versus Wuhan Zall 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 54% | Wuhan Zall 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.01 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.143 / defence 1.040 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.884 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.356. Wuhan Zall's defence rating of 1.207 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Beijing Guoan's projected output up. Data: built from Beijing Guoan's last 38 games and Wuhan Zall's last 38.
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 54% | Draw 23% | Wuhan Zall 23%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.84 | Draw 4.40 | Wuhan Zall 4.37. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.01 / 1.25) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Wuhan Zall's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Beijing Guoan 50% (last 10 home games) | Wuhan Zall 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, matchday 25 | Venue: Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 November 2022 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 54% | Draw 23% | Wuhan Zall 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Beijing Guoan 2.01 / Wuhan Zall 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.143 / def 1.040 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.884 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Wuhan Zall xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall FAQs
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall?
Beijing Guoan 3 - 1 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall is a Super League fixture (matchday 25) (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 54% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Zall will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Wuhan Zall's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. Flip it around — Wuhan Zall's attack (0.88x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from Beijing Guoan's last 38 games and Wuhan Zall's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
54%
1.84
23%
4.40
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.25
1.25
Wuhan Zall xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
13%
7.43
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
3%
32.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.25 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Beijing Guoan have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 20W 13D 13L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Wuhan Zall's form line: 9W 14D 23L from 46 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Beijing Guoan are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wuhan Zall.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Beijing Guoan have posted 1.81 PPG from their last 21 home games (10W 8D 3L).
On the road, Wuhan Zall have gone 4W 5D 12L from their last 21 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Zall are on 1.07 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall in 61%.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Beijing Guoan (Home) vs Wuhan Zall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall Form FAQs
What form are Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Zall in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 20W 13D 13L in their last 46 games (1.59 PPG), while Wuhan Zall have gone 9W 14D 23L in their last 46 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Wuhan Zall away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.81 PPG; Wuhan Zall away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Zall, the earliest from May 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 13 November 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Beijing Guoan have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beijing Guoan won Wuhan Zall 1-4 Beijing Guoan on 17 Aug 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Wuhan Zall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
0
Draws
0
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Zall?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Wuhan Zall have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 November 2022: Beijing Guoan 3-1 Wuhan Zall.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Zall?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 67%, Wuhan Zall 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Beijing Guoan) and 48% (Wuhan Zall).
On the defensive side: Wuhan Zall in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Zall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Zall matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 43% of Wuhan Zall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Zall matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 48% of Wuhan Zall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Wuhan Zall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 71% of Wuhan Zall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Wuhan Zall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Wuhan Zall 3-1 at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.01 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.25 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.14 / defence 1.04 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.88 / defence 1.21, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 54% | Draw 23% | Wuhan Zall 23%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 54%, Wuhan Zall 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (46 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (46 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.