Hangzhou Greentown 2-1 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG make the trip to Huzhou Olympic Sports Center to face Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Tuesday 22 November 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hangzhou Greentown have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown's home record at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SHANGHAI SIPG (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Super League outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, SHANGHAI SIPG are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Hangzhou Greentown 0W, SHANGHAI SIPG 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 48% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hangzhou Greentown 37% | SHANGHAI SIPG 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.24 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.977 / defence 0.992 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.199 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.369. Data: 25 Hangzhou Greentown games / 39 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 28% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 46%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.17. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Hangzhou Greentown 30% | SHANGHAI SIPG 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Huzhou Olympic Sports Center • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 28% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.24 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.977 / def 0.992 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.199 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.63
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 22 November 2022 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Hangzhou Greentown 2 - 1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 28% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (1 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 0W | Draws 1 | SHANGHAI SIPG 0W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hangzhou Greentown's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (1.20x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 25/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
28%
3.55
26%
3.83
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.87
1.63
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
6%
18.11
13%
7.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.63 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Hangzhou Greentown have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 12W 11D 4L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form line: 16W 5D 6L from 27 games, 1.96 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.74 PPG for Hangzhou Greentown against 1.96 for SHANGHAI SIPG. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 1.83 PPG from 12 outings (6W 4D 2L).
On the road, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 6W 3D 3L from 12 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.63 scored and 0.74 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; SHANGHAI SIPG in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 12W 11D 4L in their last 27 games (1.74 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 16W 5D 6L in their last 27 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.83 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 3-0 on 31 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Hangzhou Greentown
4
Draws
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 9 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 2-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 25%, SHANGHAI SIPG 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 58% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; SHANGHAI SIPG in 33%; Hangzhou Greentown have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 58% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 58% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hangzhou Greentown defy the odds to beat SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.24 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.63 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.20 / defence 0.85, drawn from 25/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 28% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 46%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Hangzhou Greentown win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 37%, SHANGHAI SIPG 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (27 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (27 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.74 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG 1.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.