SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 8 as SHANGHAI SIPG welcome Hebei Zhongji to Puwan Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 4 July 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. SHANGHAI SIPG have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Puwan Stadium, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Puwan Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — SHANGHAI SIPG are significantly better at Puwan Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Hebei Zhongji — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Hebei Zhongji have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Hebei Zhongji have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for SHANGHAI SIPG, 1 for Hebei Zhongji and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Jun 2022, ended 2–0 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Hebei Zhongji trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 41% versus Hebei Zhongji 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 45% | Hebei Zhongji 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.41 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.780 / defence 0.844 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.713 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.145. SHANGHAI SIPG's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hebei Zhongji bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing SHANGHAI SIPG's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 21 Hebei Zhongji games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 53% | Draw 30% | Hebei Zhongji 17%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.89 | Draw 3.33 | Hebei Zhongji 5.88. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 20% | Hebei Zhongji 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 4 Jul 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 53% | Draw 30% | Hebei Zhongji 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 39% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.41 / Hebei Zhongji 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.780 / def 0.844 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.713 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Hebei Zhongji xG
39%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 10:30 on Monday 4 July 2022 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji?
SHANGHAI SIPG 2 - 1 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 53% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 17% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Hebei Zhongji will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Hebei Zhongji?
Record (3 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 2W | Draws 0 | Hebei Zhongji 1W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Hebei Zhongji in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SHANGHAI SIPG's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Hebei Zhongji's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Hebei Zhongji's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
53%
1.87
30%
3.39
17%
5.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.10
0.69
Hebei Zhongji xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
5.83
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
4%
23.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 11.9 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0.69 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SHANGHAI SIPG's recent record stands at 16W 7D 6L from 29 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hebei Zhongji, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 15L across 29 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hebei Zhongji heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SHANGHAI SIPG have managed 10W 2D 2L from 14 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hebei Zhongji's away record stands at 2W 3D 9L across 14 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 0.66 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Early Season
Hebei Zhongji
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 16W 7D 6L in their last 29 games (1.90 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 7W 7D 15L in their last 29 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.29 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 0.64 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Hebei Zhongji been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Hebei Zhongji in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: SHANGHAI SIPG have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Hebei Zhongji specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
0
Draws
1
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Hebei Zhongji?
From 4 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, Hebei Zhongji have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2022, when SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Hebei Zhongji?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Hebei Zhongji see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — SHANGHAI SIPG 21% BTTS, Hebei Zhongji 36%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 43% (Hebei Zhongji).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; Hebei Zhongji in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Hebei Zhongji?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 36% of Hebei Zhongji's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 43% of Hebei Zhongji's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Hebei Zhongji tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Hebei Zhongji in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Hebei Zhongji 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Hebei Zhongji 2-1 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.41 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.69 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.78 / defence 0.84 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.71 / defence 1.28, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 53% | Draw 30% | Hebei Zhongji 17%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 45%, Hebei Zhongji 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.