Tianjin Teda 1-2 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Beijing Guoan travel to Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 July 2022, 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Tianjin Teda have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Tianjin Teda's home record at Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium this season.
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Beijing Guoan have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beijing Guoan's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Tianjin Teda 1.80 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Tianjin Teda, 1 for Beijing Guoan and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jun 2022, ended 0–1 with Beijing Guoan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Tianjin Teda trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Beijing Guoan trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 55% versus Beijing Guoan 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 41% | Beijing Guoan 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.41 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.895 / defence 1.051 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.226 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.121. Beijing Guoan have an above-average attack strength of 1.226 — the away xG of 1.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 21 Tianjin Teda games / 21 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 35% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 37%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Beijing Guoan 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 70% | Beijing Guoan 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Jul 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 35% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.41 / Beijing Guoan 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.895 / def 1.051 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.226 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Beijing Guoan xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 3 July 2022 at Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 2 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 35% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan?
Record (2 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 0 | Beijing Guoan 1W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.90) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
35%
2.84
28%
3.56
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.85
1.44
Beijing Guoan xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
8%
12.03
9%
11.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.44 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 8W 8D 13L from 29 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 8L across 29 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-D-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beijing Guoan by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tianjin Teda heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 4W 3D 7L from 14 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 4W 3D 7L across 14 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beijing Guoan's season.
The Goals Picture
Tianjin Teda are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.31 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Early Season
Beijing Guoan
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 8W 8D 13L in their last 29 games (1.10 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 12W 9D 8L in their last 29 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.07 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Tianjin Teda
4
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 2, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-4 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 71%, Beijing Guoan 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Tianjin Teda) and 50% (Beijing Guoan).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Tianjin Teda's games and 50% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 50% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Tianjin Teda 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Tianjin Teda 1-2 at Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.41 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.44 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.90 / defence 1.05 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.23 / defence 1.12, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 35% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 37%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 41%, Beijing Guoan 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.