Hangzhou Greentown 0-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wuyuan River Stadium plays host to Hangzhou Greentown versus Henan Jianye in Super League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 3 July 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hangzhou Greentown have collected 1.44 PPG across 9 Super League outings this season: 3W 4D 2L. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 0.89 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. Hangzhou Greentown have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hangzhou Greentown's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 0L across 3 games at Wuyuan River Stadium this term (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 3 home games (100%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Wuyuan River Stadium.
Henan Jianye (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Henan Jianye have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Henan Jianye away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.44 for Hangzhou Greentown, 1.80 for Henan Jianye — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, Henan Jianye in only 10%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Hangzhou Greentown 0W, Henan Jianye 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Jun 2022, ended 1–3 with Henan Jianye winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 44% versus Henan Jianye 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hangzhou Greentown 22% | Henan Jianye 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 0.76 xG and Henan Jianye 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.787 / defence 0.848 | Henan Jianye attack 1.006 / defence 0.683. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.147. Hangzhou Greentown's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Henan Jianye's defence strength of 0.683 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 7 Hangzhou Greentown games / 21 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 26% | Draw 37% | Henan Jianye 38%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 3.85 | Draw 2.70 | Henan Jianye 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Hangzhou Greentown's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.74 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 0% | Henan Jianye 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Jul 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 26% | Draw 37% | Henan Jianye 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 35% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 0.76 / Henan Jianye 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.787 / def 0.848 | Henan Jianye attack 1.006 / def 0.683 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Henan Jianye xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 3 July 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye?
Hangzhou Greentown 0 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 26% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 38% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye?
Record (1 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 0W | Draws 0 | Henan Jianye 1W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 3W-4D-2L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 0.89 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (0.79) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (0.68), the model arrives at 0.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (1.01x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 7/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
26%
3.89
37%
2.73
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.1%
Away win
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
1.74
0.98
Henan Jianye xG
3.89
26%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
47%
2.15
Win to Nil
10%
10.34
18%
5.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 17.1 | 8.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 0.98 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, Hangzhou Greentown have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 3W 4D 2L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Henan Jianye's form line: 5W 2D 2L from 9 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Henan Jianye, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Henan Jianye are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hangzhou Greentown.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 1.67 PPG from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L).
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Henan Jianye's season.
Attack vs Defence
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Henan Jianye in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Early Season
Henan Jianye
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 4D 2L in their last 9 games (1.44 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Henan Jianye away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.67 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hangzhou Greentown won 3-0 on 30 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Hangzhou Greentown
3
Draws
3
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye?
From 9 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, Henan Jianye have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Henan Jianye 0-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hangzhou Greentown tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 0% (Henan Jianye) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Hangzhou Greentown and 0% for Henan Jianye.
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 67%; Hangzhou Greentown have failed to score in 67% of games; Henan Jianye in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 0% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 0% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Henan Jianye edge out Hangzhou Greentown 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Hangzhou Greentown 0-1 at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 0.76 xG and Henan Jianye 0.98 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.79 / defence 0.85 against Henan Jianye attack 1.01 / defence 0.68, drawn from 7/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 26% | Draw 37% | Henan Jianye 38%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 22%, Henan Jianye 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Henan Jianye arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.44. That form edge translated into the three points. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.