Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Qingdao Jonoon face Sichuan Jiuniu.

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Analysis & Preview

Sichuan Jiuniu travel to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to take on Qingdao Jonoon in Super League (matchday 2). The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 March 2025 at 07:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Qingdao Jonoon's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Sichuan Jiuniu — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Sichuan Jiuniu away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Qingdao Jonoon 1.00 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Sichuan Jiuniu 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2024, ended Qingdao Jonoon 1–0 Sichuan Jiuniu — a Qingdao Jonoon win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 50% of games.

Sichuan Jiuniu trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 37% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 40% | Sichuan Jiuniu 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.82 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.981 / defence 1.086 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.989 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.690 / away 1.212. Data: built from Qingdao Jonoon's last 31 games and Sichuan Jiuniu's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 48% | Draw 25% | Sichuan Jiuniu 26%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.06 | Draw 3.98 | Sichuan Jiuniu 3.79. Qingdao Jonoon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.82 / 1.30) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Qingdao Jonoon as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Qingdao Jonoon's last 10 home games and Sichuan Jiuniu's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Qingdao Jonoon 60% (last 10 home games) | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Qingdao Jonoon 31 games, Sichuan Jiuniu 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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