Meizhou Kejia 6-0 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Meizhou Kejia at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Meizhou Kejia and Hebei Zhongji meet at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium in Super League (matchday 17). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 September 2022 at 13:30 UK time.
Current Form
Meizhou Kejia's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Meizhou Kejia's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 2L across their last 9 home games (1.89 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 89% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hebei Zhongji (all games): 1W 0D 9L across their last 10 — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 3.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
When travelling, Hebei Zhongji have posted 0W 1D 9L from their last 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Meizhou Kejia's 1.90 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Hebei Zhongji's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (last 15 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games).
Hebei Zhongji — key trading statistics (last 15 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 67% versus Hebei Zhongji 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 53% | Hebei Zhongji 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 2.14 xG and Hebei Zhongji 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.173 / defence 1.154 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.705 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.258. Hebei Zhongji's defence rating of 1.284 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Meizhou Kejia's projected output up. Hebei Zhongji's attack rating of 0.705 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Data: built from Meizhou Kejia's last 15 games and Hebei Zhongji's last 29.
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 62% | Draw 22% | Hebei Zhongji 16%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 1.61 | Draw 4.60 | Hebei Zhongji 6.16. The model has a clear lean to Meizhou Kejia (62%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Meizhou Kejia at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Meizhou Kejia's last 9 home games and Hebei Zhongji's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Meizhou Kejia 89% (last 9 home games) | Hebei Zhongji 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, matchday 17 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 September 2022 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 62% | Draw 22% | Hebei Zhongji 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Meizhou Kejia 2.14 / Hebei Zhongji 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.173 / def 1.154 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.705 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Hebei Zhongji xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji FAQs
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji?
Meizhou Kejia 6 - 0 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji is a Super League fixture (matchday 17) (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 62% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Hebei Zhongji will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Meizhou Kejia's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Hebei Zhongji's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.14. Flip it around — Hebei Zhongji's attack (0.70x) against Meizhou Kejia's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Meizhou Kejia's last 15 games and Hebei Zhongji's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.60
16%
6.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
3.16
1.02
Hebei Zhongji xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
6.16
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
12%
8.51
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
2%
52.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.02 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Meizhou Kejia come into this having played 15 games, going 7W 5D 3L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Hebei Zhongji sit at 0.20 PPG from 15 outings (1W 0D 14L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Meizhou Kejia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.53 PPG clear of Hebei Zhongji — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Meizhou Kejia's home form reads 4W 0D 2L across their last 6 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Hebei Zhongji have taken 0.00 points per game from their last 6 away games (0W 0D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Meizhou Kejia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 0.60 scored and 2.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Meizhou Kejia (Home) vs Hebei Zhongji (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji Form FAQs
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 7W 5D 3L in their last 15 games (1.73 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 1W 0D 14L in their last 15 (0.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 2.00 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 5 December 2022, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Meizhou Kejia
0
Draws
0
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Hebei Zhongji?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Meizhou Kejia have won 2, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 December 2022: Hebei Zhongji 0-4 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Hebei Zhongji?
Meizhou Kejia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Meizhou Kejia 83%, Hebei Zhongji 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Meizhou Kejia and 67% for Hebei Zhongji. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hebei Zhongji in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Meizhou Kejia and Hebei Zhongji matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 33% of Hebei Zhongji's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Meizhou Kejia and Hebei Zhongji matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 67% of Hebei Zhongji's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Hebei Zhongji matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Meizhou Kejia's recent matches and 67% of Hebei Zhongji's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Meizhou Kejia run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Hebei Zhongji.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia beat Hebei Zhongji 6-0 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 2.14 xG and Hebei Zhongji 1.02 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hebei Zhongji landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.17 / defence 1.15 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.70 / defence 1.28, drawn from 15/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 62% | Draw 22% | Hebei Zhongji 16%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 53%, Hebei Zhongji 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Meizhou Kejia arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.20. Form held, and they took the win. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.