Beijing Guoan 3-1 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Beijing Guoan welcome Hebei Zhongji to Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium in Super League (matchday 18). Kick-off is Wednesday 14 September 2022 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Beijing Guoan have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Beijing Guoan's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hebei Zhongji stand at 1W 0D 9L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 3.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
Hebei Zhongji's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 10L across their last 10 road games (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Beijing Guoan, 0 for Hebei Zhongji and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 6 Aug 2021, ended Beijing Guoan 0–0 Hebei Zhongji — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Beijing Guoan in-play tendencies (last 38 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Hebei Zhongji in-play tendencies (last 38 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 58% versus Hebei Zhongji 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 53% | Hebei Zhongji 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.92 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 0.843 / defence 0.932 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.615 / defence 1.568. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.235. Hebei Zhongji's defence rating of 1.568 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Beijing Guoan's projected output up. Hebei Zhongji's attack rating of 0.615 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. Data: built from Beijing Guoan's last 30 games and Hebei Zhongji's last 30.
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 65% | Draw 23% | Hebei Zhongji 12%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.54 | Draw 4.37 | Hebei Zhongji 8.27. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (65%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beijing Guoan 50% (last 10 home games) | Hebei Zhongji 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, matchday 18 | Venue: Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 September 2022 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 65% | Draw 23% | Hebei Zhongji 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Beijing Guoan 1.92 / Hebei Zhongji 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 0.843 / def 0.932 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.615 / def 1.568 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Hebei Zhongji xG
44%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji FAQs
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Wednesday 14 September 2022 at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji?
Beijing Guoan 3 - 1 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji is a Super League fixture (matchday 18) (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 65% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 12% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Hebei Zhongji will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Beijing Guoan's attack at 0.84x the league average against Hebei Zhongji's defence at 1.57x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hebei Zhongji's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beijing Guoan's last 30 games and Hebei Zhongji's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
65%
1.54
23%
4.37
12%
8.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.62
0.71
Hebei Zhongji xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
8.27
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
15%
6.79
Win to Nil
32%
3.12
2%
56.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 9.8 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.71 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Beijing Guoan have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 15W 11D 12L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Hebei Zhongji's form line: 7W 7D 24L from 38 games, 0.74 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Beijing Guoan are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hebei Zhongji.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Beijing Guoan have posted 1.78 PPG from their last 18 home games (8W 8D 2L).
On the road, Hebei Zhongji have gone 2W 3D 13L from their last 18 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 0.63 scored and 2.05 conceded.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Beijing Guoan (Home) vs Hebei Zhongji (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji Form FAQs
What form are Beijing Guoan and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 15W 11D 12L in their last 38 games (1.47 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 7W 7D 24L in their last 38 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.78 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 10 December 2022, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Dec 2022, when Beijing Guoan won Hebei Zhongji 0-4 Beijing Guoan.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Hebei Zhongji specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
1
Draws
0
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Hebei Zhongji?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Beijing Guoan have won 3, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 December 2022: Hebei Zhongji 0-4 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Hebei Zhongji?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beijing Guoan see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 61%, Hebei Zhongji 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Beijing Guoan) and 50% (Hebei Zhongji).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hebei Zhongji in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Hebei Zhongji Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beijing Guoan and Hebei Zhongji matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 33% of Hebei Zhongji's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Beijing Guoan and Hebei Zhongji matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 50% of Hebei Zhongji's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Hebei Zhongji matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 61% of Hebei Zhongji's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hebei Zhongji.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Hebei Zhongji 3-1 at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.92 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.71 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 0.84 / defence 0.93 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.61 / defence 1.57, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 65% | Draw 23% | Hebei Zhongji 12%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 53%, Hebei Zhongji 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.74. That form edge translated into the three points. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.