Meizhou Kejia 4-2 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Meizhou Kejia at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Aerbin meet at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 August 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Meizhou Kejia (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Meizhou Kejia's home record at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium: 4W 2D 2L from 8 Super League appearances (1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dalian Aerbin have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Meizhou Kejia's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Dalian Aerbin's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games).
Dalian Aerbin — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 64% versus Dalian Aerbin 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 50% | Dalian Aerbin 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.32 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.049 / defence 1.077 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.844 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.297. Data: 14 Meizhou Kejia games / 27 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 39% | Draw 29% | Dalian Aerbin 32%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Dalian Aerbin 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Meizhou Kejia are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 88% | Dalian Aerbin 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 39% | Draw 29% | Dalian Aerbin 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.32 / Dalian Aerbin 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.049 / def 1.077 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.844 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Dalian Aerbin xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin?
Meizhou Kejia 4 - 2 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 39% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Aerbin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Aerbin in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Meizhou Kejia's attack rating (1.05) and Dalian Aerbin's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dalian Aerbin's attack (0.84x) against Meizhou Kejia's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 14/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
39%
2.57
29%
3.48
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.50
1.18
Dalian Aerbin xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
9%
11.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.18 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Meizhou Kejia's recent record stands at 6W 5D 3L from 14 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dalian Aerbin, meanwhile, have gone 3W 6D 5L across 14 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Meizhou Kejia by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dalian Aerbin heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Meizhou Kejia have managed 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dalian Aerbin's away record stands at 1W 3D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Meizhou Kejia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.07 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 6W 5D 3L in their last 14 games (1.64 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 3W 6D 5L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 2.00 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Meizhou Kejia have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Meizhou Kejia
1
Draws
1
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Aerbin?
From 4 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 2, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 29 July 2023, when Meizhou Kejia 2-1 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Aerbin?
Meizhou Kejia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Meizhou Kejia 83%, Dalian Aerbin 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Meizhou Kejia and 50% for Dalian Aerbin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalian Aerbin in 33%; Dalian Aerbin in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Dalian Aerbin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 33% of Dalian Aerbin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 50% of Dalian Aerbin's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Meizhou Kejia cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Dalian Aerbin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia beat Dalian Aerbin 4-2 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.32 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.18 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dalian Aerbin outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.05 / defence 1.08 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.84 / defence 0.94, drawn from 14/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 39% | Draw 29% | Dalian Aerbin 32%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 50%, Dalian Aerbin 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Meizhou Kejia arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.