Dalian Zhixing 1-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tianjin Teda make the trip to Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium to face Dalian Zhixing in Super League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 April 2025 at 08:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tianjin Teda (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.59 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.935 / defence 0.942 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.092 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.653 / away 1.469. Data: 5 Dalian Zhixing games / 35 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 38% | Draw 27% | Tianjin Teda 34%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Tianjin Teda 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dalian Zhixing as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalian Zhixing if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Apr 2025, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 38% | Draw 27% | Tianjin Teda 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.59 / Tianjin Teda 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.935 / def 0.942 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.092 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.653 / away 1.469 • Poisson stance: Dalian Zhixing (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Tianjin Teda xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda?
Dalian Zhixing 1 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 38% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dalian Zhixing the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Tianjin Teda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Tianjin Teda in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Tianjin Teda away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dalian Zhixing's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Tianjin Teda's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (1.09x) against Dalian Zhixing's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Zhixing Win
38%
2.62
27%
3.65
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
3.10
1.51
Tianjin Teda xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
8%
11.87
7%
14.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.51 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
Tianjin Teda
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 31 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Tianjin Teda have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Dalian Zhixing
1
Draws
2
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Tianjin Teda?
From 3 meetings on record, Dalian Zhixing have won 0, Tianjin Teda have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-0 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Zhixing and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dalian Zhixing and Tianjin Teda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Dalian Zhixing and Tianjin Teda drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.59 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.51 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.94 / defence 0.94 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.09 / defence 1.03, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 38% | Draw 27% | Tianjin Teda 34%, with Dalian Zhixing to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.