Shandong Luneng 4-0 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sichuan Jiuniu make the trip to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Friday 11 April 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Current Form
Shandong Luneng's overall Super League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Shandong Luneng's home record at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sichuan Jiuniu (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Shandong Luneng. A 0.60 PPG lead over Sichuan Jiuniu (1.40 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shandong Luneng lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 4–1 with Shandong Luneng winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shandong Luneng — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sichuan Jiuniu — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 50% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 57% | Sichuan Jiuniu 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.72 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 0.955 / defence 0.999 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.793 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.637 / away 1.460. Data: 35 Shandong Luneng games / 35 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 49% | Draw 28% | Sichuan Jiuniu 24%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Sichuan Jiuniu 4.17. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Shandong Luneng 50% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 Apr 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 49% | Draw 28% | Sichuan Jiuniu 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Shandong Luneng 1.72 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 0.955 / def 0.999 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.793 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.637 / away 1.460 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 11 April 2025 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Shandong Luneng 4 - 0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 49% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (2 meetings): Shandong Luneng 2W | Draws 0 | Sichuan Jiuniu 0W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shandong Luneng's attack rating (0.95) and Sichuan Jiuniu's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.79x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
49%
2.06
28%
3.59
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
2.88
1.16
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
4%
23.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.16 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 30 games, going 13W 9D 8L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Sichuan Jiuniu sit at 0.97 PPG from 30 outings (7W 8D 15L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 8W 4D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Sichuan Jiuniu have taken 0.87 points per game from 15 outings (3W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shandong Luneng are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 0.97 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 13W 9D 8L in their last 30 games (1.60 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 7W 8D 15L in their last 30 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 1.87 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Sichuan Jiuniu been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sichuan Jiuniu in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 4-0 on 11 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Shandong Luneng
1
Draws
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 6 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 5, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Shandong Luneng 1-1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 53%, Sichuan Jiuniu 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Shandong Luneng) and 47% (Sichuan Jiuniu). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng have failed to score in 33% of games; Sichuan Jiuniu in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 53% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 47% of Sichuan Jiuniu's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Sichuan Jiuniu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Sichuan Jiuniu 4-0 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.72 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.16 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sichuan Jiuniu landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 0.95 / defence 1.00 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.79 / defence 1.10, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 49% | Draw 28% | Sichuan Jiuniu 24%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 57%, Sichuan Jiuniu 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.