Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Chengdu Better City (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Qingdao Jonoon face Chengdu Better City.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Qingdao Jonoon welcome Chengdu Better City to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chengdu Better City stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Chengdu Better City's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Chengdu Better City's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Qingdao Jonoon's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Qingdao Jonoon, 3 for Chengdu Better City and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Jun 2024, ended 1–5 with Chengdu Better City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
Chengdu Better City in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 40% versus Chengdu Better City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 43% | Chengdu Better City 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 0.89 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.771 / defence 1.006 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.178 / defence 0.706. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.456. Qingdao Jonoon's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Chengdu Better City's defence strength of 0.706 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 35 Qingdao Jonoon games / 35 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 17% | Draw 28% | Chengdu Better City 55%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 5.88 | Draw 3.57 | Chengdu Better City 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 60% | Chengdu Better City 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 17% | Draw 28% | Chengdu Better City 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 0.89 / Chengdu Better City 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.771 / def 1.006 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.178 / def 0.706 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Chengdu Better City xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City?
Qingdao Jonoon 0 - 1 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 17% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 55% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City?
Record (4 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 1W | Draws 0 | Chengdu Better City 3W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating (0.77) and Chengdu Better City's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-2 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
17%
5.90
28%
3.54
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.62
1.73
Chengdu Better City xG
5.90
17%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
18%
5.62
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
3%
33.15
22%
4.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 12.6 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.73 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Qingdao Jonoon's recent record stands at 15W 12D 33L from 60 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Chengdu Better City, meanwhile, have gone 33W 13D 14L across 60 games — 1.87 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chengdu Better City by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Jonoon heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Qingdao Jonoon have managed 13W 6D 11L from 30 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Chengdu Better City's away record stands at 13W 8D 9L across 30 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.93 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 15W 12D 33L in their last 60 games (0.95 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 33W 13D 14L in their last 60 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.50 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Qingdao Jonoon or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Qingdao Jonoon have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jun 2024, when Chengdu Better City won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Chengdu Better City specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Qingdao Jonoon
2
Draws
5
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City?
From 8 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Chengdu Better City have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 1-1 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 47%, Chengdu Better City 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 50% (Chengdu Better City).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Chengdu Better City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 57% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 50% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Qingdao Jonoon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 0.89 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.73 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Jonoon fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.77 / defence 1.01 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.18 / defence 0.71, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 17% | Draw 28% | Chengdu Better City 55%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 43%, Chengdu Better City 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.