Dalian Aerbin 0-0 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 38%, yet in-form Chengdu Better City provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Dalian Aerbin welcome Chengdu Better City to Dalian Sports Center in Super League (matchday 3). Kick-off is Wednesday 26 April 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Dalian Aerbin have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Dalian Aerbin have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Chengdu Better City stand at 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Chengdu Better City have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Chengdu Better City — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Dalian Aerbin, 2 for Chengdu Better City and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Dec 2022, ended Dalian Aerbin 0–3 Chengdu Better City — a Chengdu Better City win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dalian Aerbin in-play tendencies (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Chengdu Better City in-play tendencies (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 58% versus Chengdu Better City 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 58% | Chengdu Better City 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Dalian Aerbin surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Chengdu Better City have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 58% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.37 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.089 / defence 0.991 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.946 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.293. Data: built from Dalian Aerbin's last 36 games and Chengdu Better City's last 36. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 38% | Draw 31% | Chengdu Better City 31%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 2.63 | Draw 3.18 | Chengdu Better City 3.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Chengdu Better City (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dalian Aerbin 80% (last 10 home games) | Chengdu Better City 30% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Dalian Aerbin 36 games, Chengdu Better City 36) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, matchday 3 | Venue: Dalian Sports Center • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 April 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 38% | Draw 31% | Chengdu Better City 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.37 / Chengdu Better City 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.089 / def 0.991 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.946 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Chengdu Better City xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City FAQs
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at Dalian Sports Center.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City?
Dalian Aerbin 0 - 0 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Sports Center.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City is a Super League fixture (matchday 3) (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 38% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dalian Aerbin's attack at 1.09x the league average against Chengdu Better City's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dalian Aerbin's last 36 games and Chengdu Better City's last 36, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
38%
2.63
31%
3.18
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.58
1.21
Chengdu Better City xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
11%
8.83
8%
12.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.21 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Dalian Aerbin have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 13W 10D 13L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Chengdu Better City's form line: 19W 12D 5L from 36 games, 1.92 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Chengdu Better City are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dalian Aerbin.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dalian Aerbin have posted 1.44 PPG from their last 18 home games (7W 5D 6L).
On the road, Chengdu Better City have gone 10W 4D 4L from their last 18 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.42 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin (Home) vs Chengdu Better City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City Form FAQs
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 13W 10D 13L in their last 36 games (1.36 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 19W 12D 5L in their last 36 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.44 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Dalian Aerbin or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Aerbin have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 22 July 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 Dec 2022, when Chengdu Better City won Chengdu Better City 3-0 Dalian Aerbin.
Dalian Aerbin's record when hosting Chengdu Better City specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Dalian Aerbin
2
Draws
3
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, Chengdu Better City have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 July 2023: Chengdu Better City 4-1 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 67%, Chengdu Better City 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dalian Aerbin) and 28% (Chengdu Better City).
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City in 50%; Chengdu Better City in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 33% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 28% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 67% of Chengdu Better City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dalian Aerbin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dalian Sports Center, Regular Season - 3, as Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City drew 0-0 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.37 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.21 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dalian Aerbin fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Chengdu Better City landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 1.09 / defence 0.99 against Chengdu Better City attack 0.95 / defence 0.90, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 38% | Draw 31% | Chengdu Better City 31%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 58%, Chengdu Better City 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.