Dalian Aerbin 0-0 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 38%, yet in-form Chengdu Better City provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Dalian Aerbin welcome Chengdu Better City to Dalian Sports Center. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 26 April 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Dalian Aerbin have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Dalian Sports Center, Dalian Aerbin have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chengdu Better City stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Super League matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Super League this season, Chengdu Better City have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Chengdu Better City — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, Chengdu Better City 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Dec 2022, ended 0–3 with Chengdu Better City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dalian Aerbin in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Chengdu Better City in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 58% versus Chengdu Better City 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 58% | Chengdu Better City 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.37 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.089 / defence 0.991 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.946 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.293. Data: 36 Dalian Aerbin games / 36 Chengdu Better City games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 38% | Draw 31% | Chengdu Better City 31%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Chengdu Better City 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Chengdu Better City (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Aerbin 80% | Chengdu Better City 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Dalian Sports Center • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Apr 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 38% | Draw 31% | Chengdu Better City 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.37 / Chengdu Better City 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.089 / def 0.991 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.946 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Chengdu Better City xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at Dalian Sports Center.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City?
Dalian Aerbin 0 - 0 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Sports Center.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 38% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City?
Record (4 meetings): Dalian Aerbin 1W | Draws 1 | Chengdu Better City 2W.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dalian Aerbin's attack at 1.09x the league average against Chengdu Better City's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
38%
2.63
31%
3.18
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.58
1.21
Chengdu Better City xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
11%
8.83
8%
12.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.21 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Dalian Aerbin have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 13W 10D 13L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Chengdu Better City's form line: 19W 12D 5L from 36 games, 1.92 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Chengdu Better City are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dalian Aerbin.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dalian Aerbin have posted 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L).
On the road, Chengdu Better City have gone 10W 4D 4L from 18 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.42 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 13W 10D 13L in their last 36 games (1.36 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 19W 12D 5L in their last 36 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.44 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Dalian Aerbin or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Aerbin have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Dec 2022, when Chengdu Better City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dalian Aerbin's record when hosting Chengdu Better City specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Dalian Aerbin
2
Draws
3
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City?
From 6 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, Chengdu Better City have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2023, when Chengdu Better City 4-1 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 67%, Chengdu Better City 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dalian Aerbin) and 28% (Chengdu Better City).
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City in 50%; Chengdu Better City in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Chengdu Better City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 33% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 28% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Dalian Aerbin have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dalian Aerbin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dalian Sports Center, Regular Season - 3, as Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City drew 0-0 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.37 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.21 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dalian Aerbin fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Chengdu Better City landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 1.09 / defence 0.99 against Chengdu Better City attack 0.95 / defence 0.90, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 38% | Draw 31% | Chengdu Better City 31%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 58%, Chengdu Better City 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.