Hangzhou Greentown 0-2 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Hangzhou Greentown take on Chengdu Better City.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown and Chengdu Better City meet at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center in Super League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 April 2023 at 08:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hangzhou Greentown have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Hangzhou Greentown's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Chengdu Better City (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Super League outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Chengdu Better City have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.30 vs 2.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hangzhou Greentown lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Chengdu Better City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 46% versus Chengdu Better City 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hangzhou Greentown 37% | Chengdu Better City 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.00 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.987 / defence 1.006 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.836 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.218. Chengdu Better City's defence strength of 0.782 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Hangzhou Greentown games / 37 Chengdu Better City games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 31% | Draw 36% | Chengdu Better City 33%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 3.23 | Draw 2.78 | Chengdu Better City 3.03. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 50% | Chengdu Better City 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Huzhou Olympic Sports Center • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 31% | Draw 36% | Chengdu Better City 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.00 / Chengdu Better City 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.987 / def 1.006 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.836 / def 0.782 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Chengdu Better City xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Chengdu Better City?
Hangzhou Greentown 0 - 2 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 31% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 33% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Chengdu Better City?
Record (2 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 0W | Draws 2 | Chengdu Better City 0W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Chengdu Better City in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hangzhou Greentown's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Chengdu Better City's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Chengdu Better City's attack (0.84x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
The sample (36/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.18
36%
2.81
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.02
1.02
Chengdu Better City xG
3.18
31%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
11%
8.86
12%
8.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 13.6 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.02 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 18W 12D 5L from 35 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Chengdu Better City, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 5L across 35 games — 1.94 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.89 PPG for Hangzhou Greentown against 1.94 for Chengdu Better City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 10W 5D 2L from 17 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chengdu Better City's away record stands at 9W 4D 4L across 17 trips, a 1.82 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.43 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Chengdu Better City in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 18W 12D 5L in their last 35 games (1.89 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 19W 11D 5L in their last 35 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 2.06 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chengdu Better City won 4-0 on 25 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Chengdu Better City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Hangzhou Greentown
3
Draws
5
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Chengdu Better City?
From 9 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 1, Chengdu Better City have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Chengdu Better City 4-0 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 29% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 35% (Chengdu Better City) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Hangzhou Greentown and 29% for Chengdu Better City.
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Chengdu Better City in 47%; Chengdu Better City in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Chengdu Better City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 35% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 29% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chengdu Better City cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hangzhou Greentown.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Hangzhou Greentown 0-2 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.00 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.02 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Chengdu Better City outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.99 / defence 1.01 against Chengdu Better City attack 0.84 / defence 0.78, drawn from 36/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 31% | Draw 36% | Chengdu Better City 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Chengdu Better City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 37%, Chengdu Better City 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.89 PPG, Chengdu Better City 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chengdu Better City win broke the near-deadlock. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.