Shandong Luneng 2-1 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Tuesday 25 April 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Shandong Luneng (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Shandong Luneng at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Shandong Luneng against 2.30 for Hangzhou Greentown. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Shandong Luneng 1W, Hangzhou Greentown 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jun 2022, ended 0–2 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Shandong Luneng goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 46% versus Hangzhou Greentown 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 66% | Hangzhou Greentown 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.85 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.321 / defence 0.832 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.111 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.308. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack strength of 1.321 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 Shandong Luneng games / 35 Hangzhou Greentown games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 50% | Draw 28% | Hangzhou Greentown 22%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Hangzhou Greentown 4.55. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Shandong Luneng 30% | Hangzhou Greentown 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Apr 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 50% | Draw 28% | Hangzhou Greentown 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Shandong Luneng 1.85 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.321 / def 0.832 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.111 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Hangzhou Greentown xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:35 on Tuesday 25 April 2023 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Shandong Luneng 2 - 1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 50% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (2 meetings): Shandong Luneng 1W | Draws 0 | Hangzhou Greentown 1W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shandong Luneng's attack at 1.32x the league average against Hangzhou Greentown's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (1.11x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
The sample (36/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
50%
2.01
28%
3.57
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.06
1.21
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
15%
6.74
4%
28.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.21 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 35 games, going 25W 4D 6L for 2.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Hangzhou Greentown sit at 1.89 PPG from 35 outings (18W 12D 5L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.26 PPG for Shandong Luneng against 1.89 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 15W 1D 1L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.26 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hangzhou Greentown have taken 1.65 points per game from 17 outings (7W 7D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.51 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.77 scored and 0.80 conceded. Shandong Luneng's scoring rate against Hangzhou Greentown's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games; Hangzhou Greentown in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 25W 4D 6L in their last 35 games (2.26 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 18W 12D 5L in their last 35 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.71 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 20 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 3-0 on 25 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Shandong Luneng
2
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 9 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 4, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 4-1 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 29%, Hangzhou Greentown 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Shandong Luneng) and 41% (Hangzhou Greentown). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Hangzhou Greentown?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 65% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 41% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shandong Luneng edge out Hangzhou Greentown 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Hangzhou Greentown 2-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.85 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.21 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.32 / defence 0.83 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.11 / defence 1.02, drawn from 36/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 50% | Draw 28% | Hangzhou Greentown 22%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 66%, Hangzhou Greentown 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shandong Luneng 2.26 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shandong Luneng win broke the near-deadlock. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.