Vancouver FC 2-1 HFX Wanderers FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates HFX Wanderers FC at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre plays host to Vancouver FC versus HFX Wanderers FC in Canadian Premier League (matchday 11). Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 22:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Vancouver FC have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Vancouver FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
HFX Wanderers FC's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, HFX Wanderers FC have posted 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
HFX Wanderers FC arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Vancouver FC's last 10 home games and HFX Wanderers FC's last 10 away games) — Vancouver FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, HFX Wanderers FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Vancouver FC — key trading statistics (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
HFX Wanderers FC — key trading statistics (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vancouver FC 52% versus HFX Wanderers FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vancouver FC 56% | HFX Wanderers FC 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Vancouver FC surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while HFX Wanderers FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 1.17 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 0.957 / defence 1.329 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.846 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.375. Vancouver FC's defence rating of 1.329 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing HFX Wanderers FC's projected output up. Data: built from Vancouver FC's last 25 games and HFX Wanderers FC's last 53.
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 28% | Draw 27% | HFX Wanderers FC 45%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 3.58 | Draw 3.74 | HFX Wanderers FC 2.21. HFX Wanderers FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, HFX Wanderers FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on HFX Wanderers FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Vancouver FC's last 10 home games and HFX Wanderers FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vancouver FC 60% (last 10 home games) | HFX Wanderers FC 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 11 | Venue: Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 22:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 28% | Draw 27% | HFX Wanderers FC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Vancouver FC 1.17 / HFX Wanderers FC 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 0.957 / def 1.329 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.846 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: HFX Wanderers FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
1.55
HFX Wanderers FC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC FAQs
What time does Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC kick off?
Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC kicked off at 22:00 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Vancouver FC 2 - 1 HFX Wanderers FC.
Where is Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC part of?
Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 11) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 28% chance of winning, HFX Wanderers FC a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making HFX Wanderers FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vancouver FC's attack rating (0.96) and HFX Wanderers FC's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — HFX Wanderers FC's attack (0.85x) against Vancouver FC's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from Vancouver FC's last 25 games and HFX Wanderers FC's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
HFX Wanderers FC Win
28%
3.58
27%
3.74
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
2.71
1.55
HFX Wanderers FC xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
6%
16.78
14%
7.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.3 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 1.55 for HFX Wanderers FC, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vancouver FC's recent record stands at 6W 5D 14L from 25 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five.
HFX Wanderers FC, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 7L across 25 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours HFX Wanderers FC by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vancouver FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Vancouver FC have managed 4W 3D 5L from their last 12 home games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
HFX Wanderers FC's away record stands at 1W 8D 3L across their last 12 away games, a 0.92 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of HFX Wanderers FC's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vancouver FC are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; HFX Wanderers FC are on 1.40 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: HFX Wanderers FC in 64%.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Blended
HFX Wanderers FC
Blended
Vancouver FC (Home) vs HFX Wanderers FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vancouver FC
Blended
HFX Wanderers FC
Blended
❓ Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC Form FAQs
What form are Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC in coming into this match?
Vancouver FC have gone 6W 5D 14L in their last 25 games (0.92 PPG), while HFX Wanderers FC have gone 9W 9D 7L in their last 25 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vancouver FC at home or HFX Wanderers FC away?
Vancouver FC's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vancouver FC at home: 1.25 PPG; HFX Wanderers FC away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vancouver FC have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against HFX Wanderers FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Vancouver FC
1
Draws
6
HFX Wanderers FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Vancouver FC have won 3, HFX Wanderers FC have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Vancouver FC 2-1 HFX Wanderers FC.
Who has won more matches between Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC?
HFX Wanderers FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
HFX Wanderers FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 80% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vancouver FC 58%, HFX Wanderers FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Vancouver FC) and 25% (HFX Wanderers FC).
On the defensive side: Vancouver FC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / HFX Wanderers FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Vancouver FC's games and 67% of HFX Wanderers FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Vancouver FC's recent games and 25% of HFX Wanderers FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Vancouver FC's recent matches and 75% of HFX Wanderers FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vancouver FC defy the odds to beat HFX Wanderers FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vancouver FC beat HFX Wanderers FC 2-1 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.17 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.55 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Vancouver FC beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.33 against HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.85 / defence 0.96, drawn from 25/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 28% | Draw 27% | HFX Wanderers FC 45%, with HFX Wanderers FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Vancouver FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 56%, HFX Wanderers FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vancouver FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, HFX Wanderers FC arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Vancouver FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.