Atlético Ottawa 1-1 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 38%, yet in-form Atlético Ottawa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Pacific FC travel to TD Place Stadium to take on Atlético Ottawa in Canadian Premier League (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 13 September 2023 at 23:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Atlético Ottawa stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Atlético Ottawa at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Pacific FC — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Atlético Ottawa are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Atlético Ottawa trading profile (last 53 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Pacific FC trading profile (last 53 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 49% versus Pacific FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 42% | Pacific FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.24 xG and Pacific FC 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.009 / defence 0.895 | Pacific FC attack 1.153 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.311. Data: built from Atlético Ottawa's last 51 games and Pacific FC's last 51.
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 32% | Draw 30% | Pacific FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 3.09 | Draw 3.34 | Pacific FC 2.65. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atlético Ottawa (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Atlético Ottawa 40% (last 10 home games) | Pacific FC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 11 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 September 2023 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 32% | Draw 30% | Pacific FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.24 / Pacific FC 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.009 / def 0.895 | Pacific FC attack 1.153 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Pacific FC xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC FAQs
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Wednesday 13 September 2023 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Atlético Ottawa 1 - 1 Pacific FC.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 11) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 32% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atlético Ottawa's attack rating (1.01) and Pacific FC's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Atlético Ottawa's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atlético Ottawa's last 51 games and Pacific FC's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
32%
3.09
30%
3.34
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.59
1.35
Pacific FC xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
8%
11.93
11%
9.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.35 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Atlético Ottawa have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 22W 16D 15L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Pacific FC's form line: 23W 14D 16L from 53 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atlético Ottawa on 1.55 PPG, Pacific FC on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Atlético Ottawa have posted 1.36 PPG from their last 25 home games (8W 10D 7L).
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 11W 5D 9L from their last 25 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.36 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
Atlético Ottawa (Home) vs Pacific FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC Form FAQs
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 22W 16D 15L in their last 53 games (1.55 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 23W 14D 16L in their last 53 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Pacific FC away?
Pacific FC's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.36 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Aug 2024, when Atlético Ottawa won Pacific FC 0-3 Atlético Ottawa.
Atlético Ottawa's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Atlético Ottawa
3
Draws
0
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atlético Ottawa have won 7, Pacific FC have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Pacific FC 0-2 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Pacific FC see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 48%, Pacific FC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Atlético Ottawa) and 44% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Pacific FC in 32%; Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 36% of games; Pacific FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 44% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 44% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 52% of Pacific FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Atlético Ottawa and Pacific FC drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.24 xG and Pacific FC 1.35 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.01 / defence 0.90 against Pacific FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.96, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 32% | Draw 30% | Pacific FC 38%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 42%, Pacific FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Pacific FC's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.55 PPG, Pacific FC 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.