OH Leuven 0-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OH Leuven at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as OH Leuven face Charleroi.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
OH Leuven and Charleroi meet at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 17:15 UK time.
Form
OH Leuven (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
OH Leuven's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Charleroi's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
OH Leuven — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Charleroi — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 60% versus Charleroi 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 59% | Charleroi 55%). Note also that Charleroi surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while OH Leuven recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.65 xG and Charleroi 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.985 / defence 0.896 | Charleroi attack 0.622 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.235. Charleroi's attack rating of 0.622 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.69. Data: built from OH Leuven's last 59 games and Charleroi's last 58.
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 60% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 15%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 1.66 | Draw 4.01 | Charleroi 6.70. The model has a clear lean to OH Leuven (60%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, OH Leuven are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: OH Leuven 50% (last 10 home games) | Charleroi 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 60% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG OH Leuven 1.65 / Charleroi 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.985 / def 0.896 | Charleroi attack 0.622 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Charleroi xG
41%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OH Leuven vs Charleroi FAQs
What time does OH Leuven vs Charleroi kick off?
OH Leuven vs Charleroi kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
OH Leuven 0 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is OH Leuven vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Charleroi part of?
OH Leuven vs Charleroi is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 60% chance of winning, Charleroi a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both OH Leuven and Charleroi will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will OH Leuven vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates OH Leuven's attack at 0.98x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.62x) against OH Leuven's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from OH Leuven's last 59 games and Charleroi's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
60%
1.66
25%
4.01
15%
6.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.34
0.69
Charleroi xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
6.70
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
3%
34.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 11.0 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OH Leuven vs Charleroi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for OH Leuven and 0.69 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OH Leuven come into this having played 58 games, going 18W 15D 25L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Charleroi sit at 1.24 PPG from 58 outings (20W 12D 26L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for OH Leuven against 1.24 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
OH Leuven's home form reads 11W 8D 10L across their last 29 home games, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Charleroi have taken 0.97 points per game from their last 29 away games (7W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OH Leuven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
OH Leuven are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.21 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
OH Leuven (Home) vs Charleroi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OH Leuven
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ OH Leuven vs Charleroi Form FAQs
What form are OH Leuven and Charleroi in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 18W 15D 25L in their last 58 games (1.19 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 20W 12D 26L in their last 58 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Charleroi away?
OH Leuven's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.41 PPG; Charleroi away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between OH Leuven and Charleroi, the earliest from February 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
OH Leuven
4
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ OH Leuven vs Charleroi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Charleroi?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, OH Leuven have won 3, Charleroi have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Charleroi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Charleroi 3-1 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 59%, Charleroi 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (OH Leuven) and 48% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 31%; Charleroi in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OH Leuven vs Charleroi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OH Leuven and Charleroi matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 48% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are OH Leuven and Charleroi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of OH Leuven's recent games and 48% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and Charleroi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 62% of Charleroi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at OH Leuven's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 26, as OH Leuven and Charleroi drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.65 xG and Charleroi 0.69 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. OH Leuven fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.98 / defence 0.90 against Charleroi attack 0.62 / defence 1.04, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 60% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 15%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 59%, Charleroi 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charleroi's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.19 PPG, Charleroi 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.