Kortrijk 1-3 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Kortrijk face Union St. Gilloise.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Kortrijk welcome Union St. Gilloise to Guldensporenstadion in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 18 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Kortrijk have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Kortrijk have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Union St. Gilloise — last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Union St. Gilloise's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Union St. Gilloise — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Union St. Gilloise have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Kortrijk.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2023, ended Kortrijk 0–3 Union St. Gilloise — a Union St. Gilloise win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Union St. Gilloise have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Kortrijk trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 48% versus Union St. Gilloise 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 54% | Union St. Gilloise 68%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Kortrijk surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Union St. Gilloise have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 0.76 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.646 / defence 1.056 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.289 / defence 0.748. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.222. Kortrijk's attack rating of 0.646 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Union St. Gilloise bring a tight defence (rating 0.748, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Kortrijk's projected output down. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack rating of 1.289, which lifts their away xG to 1.66. Data: built from Kortrijk's last 59 games and Union St. Gilloise's last 59.
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 16% | Draw 25% | Union St. Gilloise 59%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 6.07 | Draw 4.01 | Union St. Gilloise 1.71. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (59%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Kortrijk 40% (last 10 home games) | Union St. Gilloise 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 16% | Draw 25% | Union St. Gilloise 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Kortrijk 0.76 / Union St. Gilloise 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.646 / def 1.056 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.289 / def 0.748 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Union St. Gilloise xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise FAQs
What time does Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Kortrijk 1 - 3 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 16% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 59% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kortrijk's attack rating (0.65) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kortrijk's last 59 games and Union St. Gilloise's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.7%), 0-2 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
16%
6.07
25%
4.01
59%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.42
1.66
Union St. Gilloise xG
6.07
16%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
1.71
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
19%
5.28
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
3%
32.01
27%
3.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 14.7 | 12.3 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.66 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 12W 13D 34L from 59 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 40W 12D 7L across 59 games — 2.24 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 1.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kortrijk heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kortrijk have managed 7W 8D 14L from their last 29 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 19W 8D 2L across their last 29 away games, a 2.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kortrijk are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.10 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise in 69%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Kortrijk (Home) vs Union St. Gilloise (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kortrijk
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise Form FAQs
What form are Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 12W 13D 34L in their last 59 games (0.83 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 40W 12D 7L in their last 59 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.00 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 9 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the most recent 8 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Nov 2023, when Union St. Gilloise won Union St. Gilloise 3-0 Kortrijk.
Kortrijk's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Kortrijk
0
Draws
8
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Kortrijk have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 February 2025: Kortrijk 1-2 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kortrijk see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 45%, Union St. Gilloise 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Kortrijk) and 62% (Union St. Gilloise). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kortrijk have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Kortrijk's games and 76% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Kortrijk's matches and 62% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 86% of Union St. Gilloise's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kortrijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Kortrijk 1-3 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 0.76 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.66 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.65 / defence 1.06 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.29 / defence 0.75, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 16% | Draw 25% | Union St. Gilloise 59%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 54%, Union St. Gilloise 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 0.83. That form edge translated into the three points. Kortrijk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.