SCR Altach 0-1 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SCR Altach face Wolfsberger AC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Wolfsberger AC travel to CASHPOINT Arena to take on SCR Altach in Bundesliga (Relegation Round - 8). The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, SCR Altach have gone 1W 7D 2L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, SCR Altach have gone 1W 6D 3L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Wolfsberger AC — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Wolfsberger AC away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (SCR Altach) versus 1.10 (Wolfsberger AC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, SCR Altach have won 0, Wolfsberger AC 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 30 Mar 2024, ended SCR Altach 0–0 Wolfsberger AC — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 49% versus Wolfsberger AC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 46% | Wolfsberger AC 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SCR Altach surrender their half-time lead 67% of the time, while Wolfsberger AC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.24 xG and Wolfsberger AC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.823 / defence 0.988 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.936 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Data: built from SCR Altach's last 44 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 44.
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 42% | Draw 32% | Wolfsberger AC 27%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.39 | Draw 3.16 | Wolfsberger AC 3.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SCR Altach's last 10 home games and Wolfsberger AC's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SCR Altach 40% (last 10 home games) | Wolfsberger AC 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 8 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 42% | Draw 32% | Wolfsberger AC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG SCR Altach 1.24 / Wolfsberger AC 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.823 / def 0.988 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.936 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Wolfsberger AC xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC FAQs
What time does SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 4 May 2024 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
SCR Altach 0 - 1 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC is a Bundesliga fixture (Relegation Round - 8) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 42% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 0.82x the league average against Wolfsberger AC's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SCR Altach's last 44 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
42%
2.39
32%
3.16
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.18
0.94
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
8%
12.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for SCR Altach and 0.94 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach come into this having played 61 games, going 11W 22D 28L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Wolfsberger AC sit at 1.28 PPG from 61 outings (21W 15D 25L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SCR Altach on 0.90 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SCR Altach's home form reads 6W 11D 13L across their last 30 home games, a 0.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolfsberger AC have taken 1.57 points per game from their last 30 away games (13W 8D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.38 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Current Season
Wolfsberger AC
Current Season
SCR Altach (Home) vs Wolfsberger AC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SCR Altach
Current Season
Wolfsberger AC
Current Season
❓ SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC Form FAQs
What form are SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 11W 22D 28L in their last 61 games (0.90 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 21W 15D 25L in their last 61 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.97 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from March 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 May 2026, when Wolfsberger AC won SCR Altach 1-4 Wolfsberger AC.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SCR Altach
3
Draws
3
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SCR Altach have won 4, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: SCR Altach 3-0 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC?
SCR Altach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 50%, Wolfsberger AC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (SCR Altach) and 60% (Wolfsberger AC).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 37% of games; Wolfsberger AC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 53% of Wolfsberger AC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of SCR Altach's recent games and 60% of Wolfsberger AC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 73% of Wolfsberger AC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wolfsberger AC defy the odds to beat SCR Altach 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat SCR Altach 0-1 at CASHPOINT Arena, Relegation Round - 8, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.24 xG and Wolfsberger AC 0.94 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SCR Altach fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.82 / defence 0.99 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.94 / defence 1.12, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 42% | Draw 32% | Wolfsberger AC 27%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Wolfsberger AC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 46%, Wolfsberger AC 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.90 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.