Austria Vienna 0-4 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Generali Arena plays host to Austria Vienna versus Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Austria Vienna have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Austria Vienna's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at Generali Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Generali Arena.
Wolfsberger AC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Wolfsberger AC have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Austria Vienna's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Austria Vienna 1W, Wolfsberger AC 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Austria Vienna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 54% versus Wolfsberger AC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 59% | Wolfsberger AC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.62 xG and Wolfsberger AC 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.085 / defence 0.846 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.939 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Data: 44 Austria Vienna games / 44 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 56% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 17%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Wolfsberger AC 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Austria Vienna (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Vienna at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 40% | Wolfsberger AC 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 9 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 56% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Austria Vienna 1.62 / Wolfsberger AC 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.085 / def 0.846 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.939 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Wolfsberger AC xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Austria Vienna 0 - 4 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC is a Relegation Round - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 56% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (1 meetings): Austria Vienna 1W | Draws 0 | Wolfsberger AC 0W.
What form are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (0.94x) against Austria Vienna's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
56%
1.80
27%
3.69
17%
5.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.43
0.80
Wolfsberger AC xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
5.80
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
3%
29.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.5 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 0.80 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 23W 21D 19L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 22W 16D 25L from 63 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.30 for Wolfsberger AC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 1.71 PPG from 31 outings (14W 11D 6L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 14W 8D 9L from 31 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.37 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Current Season
Wolfsberger AC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 23W 21D 19L in their last 63 games (1.43 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 22W 16D 25L in their last 63 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.71 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or Wolfsberger AC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Wolfsberger AC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Wolfsberger AC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 0-4 on 11 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 5, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 3-0 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 48%, Wolfsberger AC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Austria Vienna and 58% for Wolfsberger AC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Wolfsberger AC in 32%; Austria Vienna have failed to score in 26% of games; Wolfsberger AC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Wolfsberger AC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 52% of Wolfsberger AC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Austria Vienna's matches and 58% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wolfsberger AC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Austria Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Austria Vienna 0-4 at Generali Arena, Relegation Round - 9, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.62 xG and Wolfsberger AC 0.80 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Austria Vienna fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Wolfsberger AC outscored their 0.80 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.08 / defence 0.85 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.94 / defence 1.12, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 56% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 17%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Wolfsberger AC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 59%, Wolfsberger AC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.43 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.