Austria Lustenau 2-0 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Austria Vienna (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Austria Lustenau face Austria Vienna.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Vienna make the trip to ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz to face Austria Lustenau in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 3 May 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Austria Lustenau (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Austria Lustenau's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 games at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz this term (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 0.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz this season.
Austria Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Austria Vienna are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Austria Lustenau 1W, Austria Vienna 3W, 3D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Austria Lustenau half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Austria Vienna half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Lustenau 48% versus Austria Vienna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 49% | Austria Vienna 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.25 xG and Austria Vienna 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.871 / defence 1.297 | Austria Vienna attack 0.998 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Data: 44 Austria Lustenau games / 44 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 34% | Draw 29% | Austria Vienna 37%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Austria Vienna 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Vienna are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Austria Lustenau 40% | Austria Vienna 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 8 | Venue: ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 34% | Draw 29% | Austria Vienna 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Austria Lustenau 1.25 / Austria Vienna 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.871 / def 1.297 | Austria Vienna attack 0.998 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Austria Vienna xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 3 May 2024 at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna?
Austria Lustenau 2 - 0 Austria Vienna.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna part of?
Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna is a Relegation Round - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 34% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna?
Record (7 meetings): Austria Lustenau 1W | Draws 3 | Austria Vienna 3W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Austria Vienna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Austria Lustenau's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Austria Vienna's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (1.00x) against Austria Lustenau's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
34%
2.95
29%
3.42
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
2.56
1.31
Austria Vienna xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
9%
10.95
11%
9.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.1 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.31 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Austria Lustenau have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 13W 19D 31L record — D-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Austria Vienna's form line: 23W 21D 19L from 63 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Austria Vienna are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Austria Lustenau.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Austria Lustenau have posted 0.87 PPG from 30 outings (7W 5D 18L).
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 9W 9D 12L from 30 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.49 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Current Season
Austria Vienna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 13W 19D 31L in their last 63 games (0.92 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 23W 21D 19L in their last 63 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 0.87 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Austria Lustenau or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Lustenau have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Austria Vienna won 5-0 on 11 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Lustenau have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Austria Lustenau
3
Draws
3
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna?
From 8 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 2, Austria Vienna have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when Austria Lustenau 2-0 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 50%, Austria Vienna 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Austria Lustenau and 57% for Austria Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Lustenau have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Austria Lustenau's games and 60% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Austria Lustenau's matches and 57% of Austria Vienna's.
Do Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Lustenau cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Austria Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Lustenau beat Austria Vienna 2-0 at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz, Relegation Round - 8, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 1.25 xG and Austria Vienna 1.31 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Austria Vienna landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 0.87 / defence 1.30 against Austria Vienna attack 1.00 / defence 1.07, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 34% | Draw 29% | Austria Vienna 37%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Austria Lustenau win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 49%, Austria Vienna 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Austria Lustenau winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.