SCR Altach 3-0 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 16 as SCR Altach welcome Austria Lustenau to CASHPOINT Arena. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 5 December 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach's home record at CASHPOINT Arena: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Austria Lustenau — All Games: 0W 1D 9L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Lustenau's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
SCR Altach carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.60 vs 0.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, SCR Altach have won 1, Austria Lustenau 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 3–0 with SCR Altach winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
SCR Altach in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Austria Lustenau in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 47% versus Austria Lustenau 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 47% | Austria Lustenau 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 0.89 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.702 / defence 0.947 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.670 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.198. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 SCR Altach games / 37 Austria Lustenau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 36% | Draw 35% | Austria Lustenau 29%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | Austria Lustenau 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.65. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.65 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Austria Lustenau's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Our Verdict
Austria Lustenau lead the H2H ledger, but SCR Altach carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 31% on No. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 30% | Austria Lustenau 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 36% | Draw 35% | Austria Lustenau 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 31% | xG SCR Altach 0.89 / Austria Lustenau 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.702 / def 0.947 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.670 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Austria Lustenau xG
31%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 5 December 2023 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
SCR Altach 3 - 0 Austria Lustenau.
Where is SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau part of?
SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 36% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau?
Record (5 meetings): SCR Altach 1W | Draws 1 | Austria Lustenau 3W.
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Austria Lustenau (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 0.70x the league average against Austria Lustenau's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Lustenau's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
36%
2.75
35%
2.89
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
1.65
0.76
Austria Lustenau xG
2.75
36%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.19
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.2 | 14.6 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.9%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for SCR Altach and 0.76 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 1.65.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SCR Altach come into this having played 47 games, going 9W 14D 24L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Austria Lustenau sit at 0.98 PPG from 47 outings (11W 13D 23L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SCR Altach on 0.87 PPG, Austria Lustenau on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
SCR Altach's home form reads 5W 6D 12L across 23 games on their own ground, a 0.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Lustenau have taken 1.00 points per game from 23 outings (5W 8D 10L).
The Goals Picture
SCR Altach are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.21 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Austria Lustenau
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 9W 14D 24L in their last 47 games (0.87 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 11W 13D 23L in their last 47 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Austria Lustenau away?
Austria Lustenau's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.91 PPG; Austria Lustenau away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2022, when Austria Lustenau won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Austria Lustenau specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
SCR Altach
2
Draws
3
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau?
From 8 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 3, Austria Lustenau have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when SCR Altach 2-2 Austria Lustenau.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Austria Lustenau see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 48%, Austria Lustenau 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (SCR Altach) and 44% (Austria Lustenau).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 39% of games; Austria Lustenau in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Austria Lustenau?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 48% of Austria Lustenau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of SCR Altach's recent games and 44% of Austria Lustenau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SCR Altach run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Austria Lustenau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat Austria Lustenau 3-0 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 0.89 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.76 xG, a combined 1.65. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SCR Altach beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.70 / defence 0.95 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.67 / defence 1.00, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 36% | Draw 35% | Austria Lustenau 29%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 47%, Austria Lustenau 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.87 PPG, Austria Lustenau 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.