Sturm Graz 1-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sturm Graz face SCR Altach.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees SCR Altach travel to Merkur Arena to take on Sturm Graz. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 December 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sturm Graz — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Merkur Arena this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merkur Arena.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Sturm Graz have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Sturm Graz have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while SCR Altach have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Sturm Graz winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sturm Graz and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Sturm Graz trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
SCR Altach trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 56% versus SCR Altach 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 52% | SCR Altach 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.87 xG and SCR Altach 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.101 / defence 0.787 | SCR Altach attack 0.754 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.198. SCR Altach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Sturm Graz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sturm Graz's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Sturm Graz games / 38 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 65% | Draw 22% | SCR Altach 14%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.54 | Draw 4.55 | SCR Altach 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 40% | SCR Altach 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 65% | Draw 22% | SCR Altach 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 43% | xG Sturm Graz 1.87 / SCR Altach 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.101 / def 0.787 | SCR Altach attack 0.754 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
0.71
SCR Altach xG
43%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach kick off?
Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Sturm Graz 1 - 0 SCR Altach.
Where is Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach part of?
Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 65% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sturm Graz and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and SCR Altach?
Record (5 meetings): Sturm Graz 4W | Draws 1 | SCR Altach 0W.
What form are Sturm Graz and SCR Altach in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sturm Graz's attack rating (1.10) and SCR Altach's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
65%
1.54
22%
4.64
14%
7.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.58
0.71
SCR Altach xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
7.38
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
32%
3.14
2%
47.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 0.71 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 30W 10D 8L from 48 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 24L across 48 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 1.16 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SCR Altach heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 17W 3D 4L from 24 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 4W 8D 12L across 24 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.88 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 30W 10D 8L in their last 48 games (2.08 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 10W 14D 24L in their last 48 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or SCR Altach away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.25 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or SCR Altach been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, SCR Altach in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sturm Graz and SCR Altach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sturm Graz have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2022, when Sturm Graz won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sturm Graz
2
Draws
0
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 8, SCR Altach have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Sturm Graz 2-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and SCR Altach?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 50%, SCR Altach 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Sturm Graz) and 58% (SCR Altach). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; SCR Altach in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 46% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Sturm Graz's matches and 58% of SCR Altach's.
Do Sturm Graz and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out SCR Altach 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat SCR Altach 1-0 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.87 xG and SCR Altach 0.71 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sturm Graz fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.10 / defence 0.79 against SCR Altach attack 0.75 / defence 1.30, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 65% | Draw 22% | SCR Altach 14%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 52%, SCR Altach 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
SCR Altach's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.