WSG Wattens 1-2 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rapid Vienna (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as WSG Wattens face Rapid Vienna.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
WSG Wattens host Rapid Vienna at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 5 December 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
WSG Wattens — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Rapid Vienna — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Rapid Vienna have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against WSG Wattens's 0 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Rapid Vienna have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
WSG Wattens trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Rapid Vienna trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 55% versus Rapid Vienna 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 53% | Rapid Vienna 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.08 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 1.139 / defence 1.381 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.193 / defence 0.752. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.198. Rapid Vienna's defence strength of 0.752 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 WSG Wattens games / 37 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 20% | Draw 22% | Rapid Vienna 58%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 5.00 | Draw 4.55 | Rapid Vienna 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Rapid Vienna (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 80% | Rapid Vienna 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 20% | Draw 22% | Rapid Vienna 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG WSG Wattens 1.08 / Rapid Vienna 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 1.139 / def 1.381 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.193 / def 0.752 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Rapid Vienna xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 5 December 2023 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna?
WSG Wattens 1 - 2 Rapid Vienna.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna part of?
WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 20% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 58% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna?
Record (5 meetings): WSG Wattens 0W | Draws 1 | Rapid Vienna 4W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from WSG Wattens's attack rating (1.14) and Rapid Vienna's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
20%
4.90
22%
4.63
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
3.06
1.97
Rapid Vienna xG
4.90
20%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
14%
7.20
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
3%
35.31
20%
5.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.97 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 12W 10D 25L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rapid Vienna's form line: 17W 12D 18L from 47 games, 1.34 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: WSG Wattens on 0.98 PPG, Rapid Vienna on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 0.96 PPG from 23 outings (5W 7D 11L).
On the road, Rapid Vienna have gone 8W 4D 11L from 23 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.66 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 12W 10D 25L in their last 47 games (0.98 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 17W 12D 18L in their last 47 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Rapid Vienna's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 0.96 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Rapid Vienna won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
WSG Wattens
3
Draws
7
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 0, Rapid Vienna have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when WSG Wattens 1-1 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 61%, Rapid Vienna 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (WSG Wattens) and 52% (Rapid Vienna).
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna in 30%; WSG Wattens have failed to score in 30% of games; Rapid Vienna in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Rapid Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 48% of Rapid Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is WSG Wattens vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 52% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rapid Vienna edge out WSG Wattens 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat WSG Wattens 1-2 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.08 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.97 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 1.14 / defence 1.38 against Rapid Vienna attack 1.19 / defence 0.75, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 20% | Draw 22% | Rapid Vienna 58%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 53%, Rapid Vienna 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 0.98 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.