Sharjah FC 0-0 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sharjah Stadium plays host to Sharjah FC versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in Pro League (matchday 19). Kick-off: Friday 28 March 2025 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sharjah FC have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Sharjah FC have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all games): 9W 1D 0L across their last 10 — 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 2.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Sharjah FC, 2 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended Sharjah FC 1–2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — a Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sharjah FC — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sharjah FC 60% and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sharjah FC 54% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.08 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 0.914 / defence 0.690 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.269 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.357. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai bring a tight defence (rating 0.758, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Sharjah FC's projected output down. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have an above-average attack rating of 1.269, which lifts their away xG to 1.19. Sharjah FC have a tight defence (rating 0.690), which is pulling Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's projected output down. Data: built from Sharjah FC's last 43 games and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 43.
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 33% | Draw 29% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 38%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 3.02 | Draw 3.50 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Sharjah FC's last 10 home games and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sharjah FC 20% (last 10 home games) | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, matchday 19 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 March 2025 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 33% | Draw 29% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Sharjah FC 1.08 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 0.914 / def 0.690 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.269 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai FAQs
What time does Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Friday 28 March 2025 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Sharjah FC 0 - 0 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Pro League fixture (matchday 19) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 33% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sharjah FC's attack rating (0.91) and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack (1.27x) against Sharjah FC's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Sharjah FC's last 43 games and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
33%
3.02
29%
3.50
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.27
1.19
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
10%
9.89
13%
7.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.19 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 23W 13D 7L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form line: 33W 6D 4L from 43 games, 2.44 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sharjah FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 20 home games (11W 7D 2L).
On the road, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 14W 4D 2L from their last 20 away games — 2.30 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 2.67 scored and 1.09 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sharjah FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 65%.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Sharjah FC (Home) vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sharjah FC
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Form FAQs
What form are Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 23W 13D 7L in their last 43 games (1.91 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 33W 6D 4L in their last 43 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.30 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, the earliest from February 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won Sharjah FC 1-4 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 5 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sharjah FC have gone 2W 3D 1L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sharjah FC
3
Draws
4
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sharjah FC have won 3, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Sharjah FC 2-0 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 50%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Sharjah FC and 75% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sharjah FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sharjah FC's games and 70% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sharjah FC's matches and 75% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's.
Do Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 80% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sharjah FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai finished level at 0-0 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.08 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.19 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sharjah FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.69 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.27 / defence 0.76, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 33% | Draw 29% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 38%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 54%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 79%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.