Sharjah FC 2-0 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Al Wahda FC travel to Sharjah Stadium to take on Sharjah FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 December 2024, 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Sharjah FC have gone 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sharjah Stadium, Sharjah FC have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Sharjah Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Sharjah FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 1.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Sharjah FC, 1 for Al Wahda FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jun 2024, ended 3–2 with Sharjah FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sharjah FC in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sharjah FC 71% and Al Wahda FC 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 63% | Al Wahda FC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.79 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.144 / defence 0.707 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.058 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.833 / away 1.557. Sharjah FC's defence rating of 0.707 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Sharjah FC games / 35 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 49% | Draw 28% | Al Wahda FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Al Wahda FC 4.55. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sharjah FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 60% | Al Wahda FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 49% | Draw 28% | Al Wahda FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Sharjah FC 1.79 / Al Wahda FC 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.144 / def 0.707 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.058 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.833 / away 1.557 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Al Wahda FC xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Sharjah FC 2 - 0 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 49% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC?
Record (5 meetings): Sharjah FC 2W | Draws 2 | Al Wahda FC 1W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sharjah FC's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Al Wahda FC's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
49%
2.02
28%
3.54
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.95
1.16
Al Wahda FC xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
4%
26.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.16 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 18W 12D 5L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC's form line: 17W 9D 9L from 35 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sharjah FC on 1.89 PPG, Al Wahda FC on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 1.82 PPG from 17 outings (8W 7D 2L).
On the road, Al Wahda FC have gone 8W 3D 6L from 17 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.80 scored and 1.29 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sharjah FC have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Al Wahda FC in 66%.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 18W 12D 5L in their last 35 games (1.89 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 17W 9D 9L in their last 35 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Sharjah FC's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.82 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Wahda FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2025, when Al Wahda FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sharjah FC
3
Draws
4
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 3, Al Wahda FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Al Wahda FC 1-0 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 65%, Al Wahda FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Sharjah FC and 59% for Al Wahda FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al Wahda FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al Wahda FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sharjah FC's games and 59% of Al Wahda FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Sharjah FC's matches and 59% of Al Wahda FC's.
Do Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sharjah FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Wahda FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al Wahda FC 2-0 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.79 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.16 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Wahda FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.71 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.85, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 49% | Draw 28% | Al Wahda FC 22%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 63%, Al Wahda FC 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sharjah FC 1.89 PPG, Al Wahda FC 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sharjah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.