Sharjah FC 2-1 Al Urooba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 5 as Sharjah FC welcome Al Urooba to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 October 2024 at 16:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Sharjah FC — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Sharjah FC have gone 4W 6D 0L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Urooba have recorded 0W 0D 4L from 4 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 3.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.25 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al Urooba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Sharjah FC have the edge — a 2.30 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sharjah FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Urooba in 75% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Sharjah FC have won 1, Al Urooba 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 5–0 with Sharjah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sharjah FC trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time.
Al Urooba trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 25% versus Al Urooba 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 50% | Al Urooba 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 2.43 xG and Al Urooba 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.124 / defence 0.669 | Al Urooba attack 0.712 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.952 / away 1.814. Sharjah FC's defence rating of 0.669 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 30 Sharjah FC games / 4 Al Urooba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 72% | Draw 17% | Al Urooba 11%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | Al Urooba 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Sharjah FC (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 60% | Al Urooba 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 72% | Draw 17% | Al Urooba 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 53% | xG Sharjah FC 2.43 / Al Urooba 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.124 / def 0.669 | Al Urooba attack 0.712 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.952 / away 1.814 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.43
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Al Urooba xG
53%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba kicked off at 16:45 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba?
Sharjah FC 2 - 1 Al Urooba.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 72% chance of winning, Al Urooba a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al Urooba will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Urooba?
Record (2 meetings): Sharjah FC 1W | Draws 1 | Al Urooba 0W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Urooba in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al Urooba (all comps): 0W-0D-4L in 4 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 3.25 | L5 L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sharjah FC's attack at 1.12x the league average against Al Urooba's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Urooba's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 3-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
72%
1.39
17%
5.99
11%
8.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.43
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
3.29
0.86
Al Urooba xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.99
17%
Draw
8.73
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
9%
11.35
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
1%
99.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al Urooba expected to score?
The model projects 2.43 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 0.86 for Al Urooba, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 4 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 4W 0D 0L record — W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Urooba's form line: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Al Urooba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sharjah FC are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Urooba.
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 2.75 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game recently; Al Urooba are on 0.75 scored and 3.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sharjah FC have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Al Urooba in 75%.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Early Season
Al Urooba
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Urooba in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 4W 0D 0L in their last 4 games (3.00 PPG), while Al Urooba have gone 0W 0D 4L in their last 4 (0.00 PPG).
Have Sharjah FC or Al Urooba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their recent games, Al Urooba in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Al Urooba runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sharjah FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2022, when Sharjah FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Al Urooba specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sharjah FC
1
Draws
0
Al Urooba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Urooba?
From 4 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 3, Al Urooba have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al Urooba last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Al Urooba 0-1 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al Urooba?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al Urooba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 25%, Al Urooba 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Sharjah FC and 75% for Al Urooba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al Urooba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al Urooba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 75% of Al Urooba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sharjah FC's matches and 75% of Al Urooba's.
Do Sharjah FC and Al Urooba tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al Urooba in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sharjah FC edge out Al Urooba 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al Urooba 2-1 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 2.43 xG and Al Urooba 0.86 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.67 against Al Urooba attack 0.71 / defence 1.11, drawn from 30/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 72% | Draw 17% | Al Urooba 11%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 50%, Al Urooba 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Urooba's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Al Urooba conceded 2 against a 3.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.