Sharjah FC vs Ajman – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sharjah FC vs Ajman encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sharjah FC host Ajman at Sharjah Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 January 2027 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Sharjah FC — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sharjah FC at Sharjah Stadium this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ajman have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Ajman have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sharjah FC at 1.90 PPG versus Ajman's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Sharjah FC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 2 for Ajman, with 2 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2026, ended 3–1 with Sharjah FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sharjah FC and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Sharjah FC trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Ajman trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 53% versus Ajman 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 56% | Ajman 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.74 xG and Ajman 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.071 / defence 0.969 | Ajman attack 1.027 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.561. Data: 33 Sharjah FC games / 32 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 43% | Draw 23% | Ajman 35%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Ajman 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sharjah FC 60% | Ajman 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 43% | Draw 23% | Ajman 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Sharjah FC 1.74 / Ajman 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.071 / def 0.969 | Ajman attack 1.027 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.561 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Ajman xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Ajman kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Ajman is scheduled to kick off at 16:15 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Sharjah Stadium.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Ajman part of?
Sharjah FC vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 43% chance of winning, Ajman a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Sharjah FC and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Ajman?
Record (10 meetings): Sharjah FC 6W | Draws 2 | Ajman 2W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Ajman in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Ajman (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sharjah FC's attack at 1.07x the league average against Ajman's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
43%
2.35
23%
4.36
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
3.30
1.55
Ajman xG
2.35
43%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
17%
5.71
Win to Nil
9%
11.11
6%
16.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.0 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.55 for Ajman, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sharjah FC come into this having played 32 games, going 12W 5D 15L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ajman sit at 1.28 PPG from 32 outings (12W 5D 15L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ajman, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sharjah FC on 1.28 PPG, Ajman on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sharjah FC's home form reads 7W 0D 9L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajman have taken 1.56 points per game from 16 outings (8W 1D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.22 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Early Season
Ajman
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Ajman in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 12W 5D 15L in their last 32 games (1.28 PPG), while Ajman have gone 12W 5D 15L in their last 32 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Ajman away?
Ajman's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.31 PPG; Ajman away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Ajman runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2023, when Sharjah FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sharjah FC
2
Draws
2
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 6, Ajman have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Ajman 1-3 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Ajman?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Ajman see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 50%, Ajman 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sharjah FC) and 44% (Ajman).
On the defensive side: Ajman in 31%; Sharjah FC have failed to score in 38% of games; Ajman in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 31% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Sharjah FC's recent games and 44% of Ajman's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sharjah FC and Ajman tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ajman in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.