Sharjah FC 4-0 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sharjah FC vs Ajman encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sharjah FC host Ajman at Sharjah Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 22 April 2025 at 14:55 UTC.
Form Guide
Sharjah FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC at Sharjah Stadium this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sharjah Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Sharjah FC are significantly better at Sharjah Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ajman have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sharjah FC at 1.70 PPG versus Ajman's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Sharjah FC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 1 for Ajman, with 2 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with Sharjah FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sharjah FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Sharjah FC trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Ajman trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sharjah FC 60% and Ajman 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 53% | Ajman 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.34 xG and Ajman 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 0.866 / defence 0.629 | Ajman attack 0.842 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.346. Sharjah FC's defence rating of 0.629 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Sharjah FC games / 47 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 52% | Draw 28% | Ajman 20%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Ajman 5.00. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 20% | Ajman 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Apr 2025, 14:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 52% | Draw 28% | Ajman 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 38% | xG Sharjah FC 1.34 / Ajman 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 0.866 / def 0.629 | Ajman attack 0.842 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Ajman xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Ajman kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Ajman kicked off at 14:55 on Tuesday 22 April 2025 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Sharjah FC 4 - 0 Ajman.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Ajman part of?
Sharjah FC vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 52% chance of winning, Ajman a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Sharjah FC and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Ajman?
Record (7 meetings): Sharjah FC 4W | Draws 2 | Ajman 1W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Ajman in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Ajman (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sharjah FC's attack at 0.87x the league average against Ajman's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
52%
1.93
28%
3.53
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.06
0.71
Ajman xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
5%
19.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 0.71 for Ajman, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sharjah FC come into this having played 45 games, going 23W 14D 8L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ajman sit at 1.29 PPG from 45 outings (15W 13D 17L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Ajman — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sharjah FC's home form reads 11W 8D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajman have taken 1.27 points per game from 22 outings (7W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.47 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sharjah FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Ajman in 62%.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Ajman in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 23W 14D 8L in their last 45 games (1.84 PPG), while Ajman have gone 15W 13D 17L in their last 45 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Ajman away?
Sharjah FC's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.86 PPG; Ajman away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Ajman been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Ajman in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Ajman runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ajman go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2023, when Sharjah FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sharjah FC
2
Draws
3
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 5, Ajman have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Ajman 3-2 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Ajman?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 50%, Ajman 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sharjah FC) and 46% (Ajman).
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Ajman?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sharjah FC's games and 64% of Ajman's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sharjah FC vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sharjah FC's recent games and 46% of Ajman's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sharjah FC and Ajman tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Ajman in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sharjah FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Ajman.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Ajman 4-0 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.34 xG and Ajman 0.71 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sharjah FC beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.63 against Ajman attack 0.84 / defence 1.05, drawn from 45/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 52% | Draw 28% | Ajman 20%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 53%, Ajman 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ajman's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.