Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0-2 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC meet at Rashid Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 September 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record at Rashid Stadium: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are significantly better at Rashid Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sharjah FC have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sharjah FC haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Sharjah FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sharjah FC are 1.30 PPG clear of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in recent Pro League fixtures (2.50 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Sharjah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Sharjah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 62% versus Sharjah FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 46% | Sharjah FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.33 xG and Sharjah FC 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.062 / defence 1.023 | Sharjah FC attack 1.094 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.263. Data: 26 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 26 Sharjah FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 35% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Sharjah FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 80% | Sharjah FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 35% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.33 / Sharjah FC 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.062 / def 1.023 | Sharjah FC attack 1.094 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Sharjah FC xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0 - 2 Sharjah FC.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 35% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC?
Record (2 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1W | Draws 0 | Sharjah FC 1W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack at 1.06x the league average against Sharjah FC's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sharjah FC's attack (1.09x) against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
35%
2.88
27%
3.75
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
2.74
1.41
Sharjah FC xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
8%
11.84
10%
9.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.41 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 12W 6D 8L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Sharjah FC's form line: 17W 4D 5L from 26 games, 2.12 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. Sharjah FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Sharjah FC are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have posted 2.15 PPG from 13 outings (9W 1D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sharjah FC have gone 6W 4D 3L from 13 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sharjah FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.77 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sharjah FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Pre-Season
Sharjah FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 12W 6D 8L in their last 26 games (1.62 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 17W 4D 5L in their last 26 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Sharjah FC away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.15 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 1-4 on 5 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sharjah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
3
Draws
2
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 5, Sharjah FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Sharjah FC 1-4 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 77%, Sharjah FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai) and 46% (Sharjah FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Sharjah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 46% of Sharjah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 46% of Sharjah FC's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sharjah FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0-2 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.33 xG and Sharjah FC 1.41 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.06 / defence 1.02 against Sharjah FC attack 1.09 / defence 0.87, drawn from 26/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 35% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 39%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 46%, Sharjah FC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.62. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.