Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5-1 Dibba Al-Fujairah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Dibba Al-Fujairah travel to Rashid Stadium to take on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 February 2023, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Rashid Stadium, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dibba Al-Fujairah — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's away record: 1W 1D 5L from 7 road trips in Pro League this season (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 0.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 2.00 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 0 for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Dibba Al-Fujairah in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 57% versus Dibba Al-Fujairah 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 71% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.66 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.027 / defence 0.876 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.636 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.428. Data: 40 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 14 Dibba Al-Fujairah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58% | Draw 24% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 18%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 70% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 29%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58% | Draw 24% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 44% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.66 / Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.027 / def 0.876 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.636 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5 - 1 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 58% chance of winning, Dibba Al-Fujairah a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Dibba Al-Fujairah will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Record (1 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1W | Draws 0 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 0W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Dibba Al-Fujairah in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Dibba Al-Fujairah's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.13
18%
5.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
2.46
0.80
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
5.63
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
3%
29.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.3 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Dibba Al-Fujairah expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 0.80 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come into this having played 14 games, going 9W 2D 3L for 2.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dibba Al-Fujairah sit at 0.29 PPG from 14 outings (1W 1D 12L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.78 PPG clear of Dibba Al-Fujairah — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home form reads 4W 1D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Dibba Al-Fujairah have taken 0.57 points per game from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al-Fujairah are on 0.43 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Dibba Al-Fujairah in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 9W 2D 3L in their last 14 games (2.07 PPG), while Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 1W 1D 12L in their last 14 (0.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Dibba Al-Fujairah away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 1.86 PPG; Dibba Al-Fujairah away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Dibba Al-Fujairah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Dibba Al-Fujairah runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Jan 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's record when hosting Dibba Al-Fujairah specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
0
Draws
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
From 4 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 4, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Dibba Al-Fujairah last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Dibba Al-Fujairah 0-4 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Dibba Al-Fujairah see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 57%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai) and 29% (Dibba Al-Fujairah).
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have failed to score in 29% of games; Dibba Al-Fujairah in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Dibba Al-Fujairah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent matches and 29% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Dibba Al-Fujairah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent games and 29% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Dibba Al-Fujairah tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shabab Al Ahli Dubai run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Dibba Al-Fujairah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 5-1 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.66 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.80 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.03 / defence 0.88 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.64 / defence 1.10, drawn from 40/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58% | Draw 24% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 18%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 71%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.29. Form held, and they took the win. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.